Falling inflation, a surprisingly robust economy, and expectations of reduced short-term rates led to a dramatic decrease in long-term rates and a significant stock market rally, especially in speculative sectors that suffered in 2022. ...read the rest of this article»

November was a month for the record books. The bond market abruptly reversed course as investors collectively decided that 5% on a ten-year government bond was about as high as we're going to see. ...read the rest of this article»

With the strength in early November, The S&P 500 index is only about 5% away from all-time highs hit at the end of 2021. The bond market is still down about 20% from the highs, with longer-term government bonds down around 40% — the biggest drop ever. ...read the rest of this article»

The hot US stock market couldn't handle the renewed slide in bonds, leading to a decline of over 4% for a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds for the month. Despite this, the economy remains strong, even as 30-year fixed rate mortgages approach 7%, reminiscent of the worst of the bond market hit in 2022.  ...read the rest of this article»

The economy is not slipping into a recession so far, at least not in the USA. However, rates are expected to remain high due to escalating costs in energy and housing. Notably, only short-term bond funds exhibited growth last month, with almost all fund categories sinking. Some riskier bond funds were the exception, benefiting from a robust economy that supports higher default risk bonds. ...read the rest of this article»

The stock market is like a fighter in a movie, taking severe punishment in the form of rising rates and saying, "Is that all ya got?" to commentators asking "what is keeping him standing?" before a big comeback. ...read the rest of this article»

Considering our heavy exposure to value stocks and bonds, we're surprised to be at least in the ballpark of the Vanguard benchmark total global portfolio fund. This is despite the tech and large-cap growth market quickly outpacing us. ...read the rest of this article»

The economy remains surprisingly buoyant, despite the Federal Reserve's relentless rate increases to temper persistent, high inflation. Given that we're still in a real estate bubble, built upon a foundation of low rates and lax Covid-related fiscal and monetary policy, this is quite a remarkable feat.  ...read the rest of this article»

This year has been marked by turbulence in the banking sector. The total assets of failed banks already exceed the inflation-adjusted assets of the banks that failed in 2008 during the financial crisis. These stark figures suggest we are likely to surpass the total assets of all the banks that collapsed during the 2008 crisis, which saw elevated failures through 2012 due to massive losses from aggressive real estate lending during a substantial housing bubble. ...read the rest of this article»

Despite the recent stress in the regional banking industry, both the stock and bond markets performed well last month. As a result of the situation, hundreds of billions of dollars left banks and flowed into money market funds that invest in Treasury bills, which now offer close to a 5% yield. ...read the rest of this article»