Stocks and bonds sunk in August, which makes it difficult for a portfolio made up of both to perform well. Of all the things investors worry about, the high correlation of all asset classes is the most distressing, and most likely. ...read the rest of this article»

The June Swoon proved temporary as stocks rebounded to new highs in July. Even previously lackluster foreign stocks joined the party as both U.S. and foreign larger stocks rose just over 5%. Emerging market stocks weren’t in a festive mood though – they continued to underperform returning less than 1% in July. Bonds were mostly flat after sliding in recent months. ...read the rest of this article»

Almost all yield-oriented foreign investments were already sliding, and U.S. stocks finally got caught up in the downdraft. The S&P 500 fell 1.35%, although the drop in the index was better than the average returns in essentially all categories of funds except short term bonds and small cap growth, including many of our own holdings. It was a bad month to be diversified. ...read the rest of this article»

Interest rates jumped, creating fears the end of falling rates is finally here. This took the entire bond market down almost 2% with a bit more damage to longer-term bonds (notably government bonds) which dropped almost 7%. High yield bonds, which are sensitive to interest rates but also to rising stocks and an improving economy, were down around a half percent.  ...read the rest of this article»

How did we beat BOTH the stock and bond indexes in April? Many of the out-of-favor areas we hold rapidly became favorable - notably Japan and telecom (both up over 8%).  Utilities were up almost 6% AND interest rates were down again, sending our longer-term bond fund up. Best of all, commodities tanked which boosted our oil short – usually up only when stocks are down. ...read the rest of this article»

Wow. The S&P 500 and the Dow both reached record highs last month, each breaking previous marks set in 2007. Don’t hold your breath for a new NASDAQ record though – that’s a solid 10-20 years off (and maybe even longer than that if adjusting for inflation).  ...read the rest of this article»

What we’re really seeing here is the steady erosion in returns of anything other than bonds. Among the worst areas over the last five years – sporting serious negative returns of between 5 and 10% per year on average (as opposed to positive annualized returns of the same magnitude in U.S. stock funds) - are gold mining-oriented and commodities funds. Gold the metal is still higher than 5 years ago, though the yellow metal is finally showing some erosion in price and popularity.  ...read the rest of this article»

All this upside is starting to attract attention. Investors are warming to stock funds again. This tends to happen shortly before market dips, and if bonds continue to slide as stocks rise we would expect to cut back on equities and shift a little more to debt, but currently stocks are still more appealing valuation-wise than bonds are. ...read the rest of this article»

Investing in markets that seem poised to plummet can be more rewarding than investing when things seem safe. Sadly many investors bailed out of stock funds in recent years. Good news on the bad news front: most every serious financial problem facing America was just kicked down the road. ...read the rest of this article»

Slowly but surely the Powerfund Portfolios are inching up on the S&P 500’s double-digit 2012 return. Competing against the S&P is a challenge because the portfolios are almost always at a lower risk profile because of our allocation to bonds. Even when we are closer heavily allocated to stocks and light on bonds (usually after big slides in the market) we are more diversified than the S&P 500. ...read the rest of this article»