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April 2011 Performance Review

The market shook off the troubles of March and headed to higher ground, up just shy of 3% in April. Considering the economy is showing some signs of running out of gas (perhaps because gas prices keep going up) and home prices are heading back down, investor optimism is surprisingly high. Too bad. Investors tend to do better long run getting in during periods of pessimism. Bonds were good after a period of rising interest rates early this year that was pushing mortgages into dangerous territory given the continued weakness in housing. 

Bubble Second Waves

When bubbles mature, investors begin considering even more speculative areas with supposedly more upside, believing "all the money has been made" in the things that have already taken off. This second wave takes what was learned in the bubble, and applies it to an investment with questionable upside, often jolting the price even faster and higher than the original bubble.

March 2011 Performance Review

With an almost perfectly flat S&P 500 in March, you’d almost think the month was a dull one on Wall Street. Hardly. By the middle of the month the S&P 500 was down about 8% from the close in February, largely due to a massive natural and manmade disaster in Japan (a market that itself was down almost 20% from the levels in February). Though Japan only partially rebounded, the S&P 500 ended the month back where it started.

Portfolio Meltdown?

Just when you thought you had your hands full with the current crop of investing fears – muni bond defaults, inflation, double-dip recessions, rising interest rates, the falling dollar, political unrest in the Middle East, rising oil prices, etc. – a new one appears: natural disasters. As we said in our article last month, Wall Street doesn’t see the real dangers coming…and generally doesn’t price in the unknowable risks of investing.

February 2011 Performance Review

Stocks continued to outshine bonds in February as inflation fears, state budget default hysteria, rising commodities, and growing inflation and turmoil in some emerging markets failed to spook investors (though in recent days things have become a little dodgy as oil prices hovered around $100).

Bad Ideas Keep Rising to the Top

Although getting between you and your investments continues to deliver spoils in the tens of billions a year to the middle men, from the lowliest broker/salesman to the highest-flying billion(s)-dollar-a-year-plus salaried hedge fund manager, the only thing shrinking is the actual return from owning stocks and bonds, particularly if you follow many of the "experts'" wisdom and guidance.

January 2011 Performance Review

The year started strong for stocks while bonds were stuck in the mud, the mud being rising long term rates and fears of future municipal bond defaults. The more stocks go up and bonds go down the better deal bonds become compared to stocks.

Muni Market Mini Meltdown

The latest debt scare making the rounds: Fear of widespread municipal bond defaults. We’ve all heard again and again the stories of state-government financial problems, so when a well-known doom-and-gloom strategist appears on TV warning about major problems in the municipal debt markets, investors take note and by taking note we mean they sell their municipal bonds.

December 2010 Performance Review

The market ended 2010 on a strong note, with our benchmark Vanguard 500 (VFINX) fund jumping 6.67% - good to deliver a 14.91% return for 2010. Foreign stocks, as measured by the iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA), were up 8.3%, but underperformed the US market with a 8.25% return for 2010 – December saved international stocks from a negative year. Our Conservative portfolio was up 1.37% while our Aggressive portfolio was up 2.58% in December. For the year, Conservative was up 7.58% while Aggressive gained 9.84% - a solid return considering our significant bond allocations.