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september 2007 performance review

October 16, 2007

The Dow climbed 4.16%, and the S&P 500 was up 3.72% in September. Both indexes beat smaller caps, which rose a relatively paltry 2.91% (Russell 2000) in comparison. Tech stocks were particularly strong, with the Nasdaq jumping 4.14%. Larger cap tech represented the best of both worlds, as the Nasdaq 100 index climbed 5.14% for the month.

Bonds, however, looked weak, with only a 0.38% total return in longer-term treasury bonds. The bond drag caused all of our model portfolios to underperform the stock indexes in September.

The Conservative Portfolio jumped 1.91% in September.

Janus Global Research (JARFX) only fell in line with the market during the recent pullback, but now on its way back up, it is outperforming the indexes once again. The fund rose 7.2% for the month, and is now an impressive 29.86% higher since we added it less than a year ago. This fund was our top performer.

September wasn't a particularly great month for bonds. Vanguard Intermediate Bond Index (VBIIX) was up 0.60%, new addition PIA Short Term Securities ( PIASX) rose 0.56%, and Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX) climbed 0.72%. The real action occurred in the partial comeback of high yield (junk) bonds. Vanguard High Yield (VWEHX) rose 2.8%. We think Harbor Bond Fund  (HABDX) must have been doing some bottom fishing in higher-risk debt to score a 1.76% return for the month.

Large cap growth stocks are the place to be this year. They've handled the ups and downs of the market quite nicely – especially since growth is generally riskier than value. If you look at a year-to-date chart comparing the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) (which we own,) to the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), you’ll see what we mean. Vanguard Growth ETF was up 4.28% last month, effectively wiping out the losses from the market peak. The fund is now outpacing all the major U.S. indexes, having risen 4.38% over the last three months.

The U.S. dollar fell yet again, and is now at an all-time low against the Euro. (Compare this to seven years ago, when we wrote our “Go-Go Euro” column. The Euro was worth about 20% less than the U.S. dollar then, but now it's worth about 40% more than the greenback…) This is great for foreign bonds (and frankly, it’s been good for stocks, too.) American Century International Bond (BEGBX) was up 3.87% last month. Since we first included this fund in some of our portfolios back in 2002, it has gone up 70%. We're down to just two portfolios with 5% allocations here, and barring some serious global economic issues, we just don’t expect the U.S. Dollar to fall much further. For more on the dollar, please read our last monthly commentary, <a href="http://maxadvisor.com/newsletter/index.php">“Buddy, Can You Spare a 10 Cent Euro Coin?”</a>

The Dow climbed 4.16%, and the S&P 500 was up 3.72% in September. Both indexes beat smaller caps, which rose a relatively paltry 2.91% (Russell 2000) in comparison. Tech stocks were particularly strong, with the Nasdaq jumping 4.14%. Larger cap tech represented the best of both worlds, as the Nasdaq 100 index climbed 5.14% for the month.

Bonds, however, looked weak, with only a 0.38% total return in longer-term treasury bonds. The bond drag caused all of our model portfolios to underperform the stock indexes in September.

The Aggressive Portfolio jumped 2.87% in September.

Janus Global Research (JARFX) only fell in line with the market during the recent pullback, but now on its way back up, it is outperforming the indexes once again. The fund rose 7.2% for the month, and is now an impressive 29.86% higher since we added it less than a year ago. This fund was our top performer.

September wasn't a particularly great month for bonds. Vanguard Intermediate Bond Index (VBIIX) was up 0.60%, new addition PIA Short Term Securities ( PIASX) rose 0.56%, and Vanguard Total Bond Index (VBMFX) climbed 0.72%. The real action occurred in the partial comeback of high yield (junk) bonds. Vanguard High Yield (VWEHX) rose 2.8%. We think Harbor Bond Fund  (HABDX) must have been doing some bottom fishing in higher-risk debt to score a 1.76% return for the month.

Large cap growth stocks are the place to be this year. They've handled the ups and downs of the market quite nicely – especially since growth is generally riskier than value. If you look at a year-to-date chart comparing the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) (which we own,) to the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), you’ll see what we mean. Vanguard Growth ETF was up 4.28% last month, effectively wiping out the losses from the market peak. The fund is now outpacing all the major U.S. indexes, having risen 4.38% over the last three months.

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