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November 2009 Performance Review

December 16, 2009

The Conservative Portfolio jumped 2.60% in November.

The S&P 500 rose just under 6% in November -- enough to bring us to a 25% gain for the year (though the market is still down by 16% over the last three years). The Dow had an even bigger month, scoring a near 7% return. The Nasdaq posted a 4.87% gain. In general larger-cap stocks beat smaller caps, with the Russell 2000 small cap index delivering a ho-hum-by-comparison 3.14% advance. Interest rates crept back down delivering a 1.68% return for long-term bond holders, though the one-year performance is only 1.4%.

It appears that we’re seeing a move away from higher risk stocks and bonds into larger-cap US stocks. Foreign and emerging markets had a slow November compared to US stocks, and we’re seeing Dow type stocks beat formerly hot Nasdaq and small cap stocks. High-yield bonds are no longer outperforming safer bonds, and value is a bit ahead of growth. The few exceptions to this is the outperformance of high risk gold and biotech stocks, which had a nice month along with lower risk healthcare stocks in general.

Back in March if you said that not only would the stock market’s collapse reverse course, but the S&P 500 would be up around 25% for the year, people would have called you crazy. More typical advice back then was the panic-inducing network rants by a famous stock market ‘expert’ warning that anyone who needs any of their money in the next few years should not be in stocks. If this strong upward move keeps up, we fully expect to hear the pundits warn that those in cash are making a big mistake and most of your money should be in stocks. We’ll keep trying to do our best to move in the opposite direction of these oft-incorrect prognosticators.

Healthcare stocks had a great month in November as investors are becoming even more confident the government’s big healthcare plans may not hurt healthcare stocks, and in fact may help them. Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) rose 9.30% in November, way ahead of the market.

Telecom stocks were exhibiting above market volatility of late. We saw a big move up in September followed by a sharp drop in October. November’s 6.09% rise for Vanguard Telecom Service ETF (VOX) was more in line with the market’s return. 

The great junk bond rally appears to be slowing down. Metropolitan West High Yield Bond (MWHYX) was up just 0.71% in November, less than the total bond market’s 1.36% return.

The Aggressive Portfolio jumped 4.88% in November.

The S&P 500 rose just under 6% in November -- enough to bring us to a 25% gain for the year (though the market is still down by 16% over the last three years). The Dow had an even bigger month, scoring a near 7% return. The Nasdaq posted a 4.87% gain. In general larger-cap stocks beat smaller caps, with the Russell 2000 small cap index delivering a ho-hum-by-comparison 3.14% advance. Interest rates crept back down delivering a 1.68% return for long-term bond holders, though the one-year performance is only 1.4%.

It appears that we’re seeing a move away from higher risk stocks and bonds into larger-cap US stocks. Foreign and emerging markets had a slow November compared to US stocks, and we’re seeing Dow type stocks beat formerly hot Nasdaq and small cap stocks. High-yield bonds are no longer outperforming safer bonds, and value is a bit ahead of growth. The few exceptions to this is the outperformance of high risk gold and biotech stocks, which had a nice month along with lower risk healthcare stocks in general.

Back in March if you said that not only would the stock market’s collapse reverse course, but the S&P 500 would be up around 25% for the year, people would have called you crazy. More typical advice back then was the panic-inducing network rants by a famous stock market ‘expert’ warning that anyone who needs any of their money in the next few years should not be in stocks. If this strong upward move keeps up, we fully expect to hear the pundits warn that those in cash are making a big mistake and most of your money should be in stocks. We’ll keep trying to do our best to move in the opposite direction of these oft-incorrect prognosticators.

Japanese stocks are starting to lag after a strong US market beating run. Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL was up just 2.08% in November, less than the US market. It is possible we are seeing a move away from higher risk stocks, be it foreign, small cap, or tech in favor of into larger cap US stocks.

Healthcare stocks had a great month in November as investors are becoming even more confident the government’s big healthcare plans may not hurt healthcare stocks, and in fact may help them. Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) rose 9.30% in November, way ahead of the market.

Biotech stocks are becoming some of the most volatile stocks in the market. After a big drop in October of around 13%, SPDR Biotech (XBI) rebounded 7.5% in November, though this was a little less than more conservative big cap healthcare names last month.

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