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June 2009 Performance Review

July 18, 2009

The Conservative Portfolio climbed 1.06% in June.

The S&P500 was up just 0.22% in June, taking a breather from the recent sharp rise off the bottom. Tech stocks were much stronger with a 3.42% climb in the Nasdaq. Small cap stocks were up 1.47% while government bonds climbed 0.77% as the rise in interest rates in recent months subsided, probably just in time to prevent more damage to real estate markets.

We used the strength of the last few months to cut back slightly on stocks at the end of June. Specifically, we sold our recent moves into financials and emerging markets, buys we made at the end of February (just days before the market turned around). We feel it’s safer making the easy money by selling these categories now versus sticking around for potential-but-risky future gains . It’s not like we’re particularly light on stocks right now anyway.

As it turns out, our performance so far this year has been even better than our posted performance figures of last month indicated due to a calculation error (returns for XLF and RSX, the financial and Russia ETFs, strong performing ETFs, were left out). All performance numbers have been revised, and all of the Powerfund Portfolios are beating the S&P500 this year. More impressive, the S&P 500 is still down around 26% over the last 12 months, while our worst model portfolio is off just 11.54%. Better still, our stock-heavy Aggressive Growth portfolio, is now up 1.28% over the last 12 months. This was primarily achieved with well-timed shorts on commodities, limited exposure to the hardest hit stock funds, and increased allocations to some solid outperformers.

Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) beat the market with a 2.36% gain as investors’ fears of government involvement in healthcare dropped and the excitement over riskier economically sensitive stocks subsided.

Junk bonds continued to rebound as investors grew increasingly more comfortable with riskier debt.  Metropolitan West High Yield Bond (MWHYX) was up 21.58% over the last three months, more than most stock funds and the S&P 500.

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) ended on a flat note with a 1.79% drop in June, though we made 59.55% in the four months we owned the fund.

The Aggressive Portfolio rose 1.53% in June.

The S&P500 was up just 0.22% in June, taking a breather from the recent sharp rise off the bottom. Tech stocks were much stronger with a 3.42% climb in the Nasdaq. Small cap stocks were up 1.47% while government bonds climbed 0.77% as the rise in interest rates in recent months subsided, probably just in time to prevent more damage to real estate markets.

We used the strength of the last few months to cut back slightly on stocks at the end of June. Specifically, we sold our recent moves into financials and emerging markets, buys we made at the end of February (just days before the market turned around). We feel it’s safer making the easy money by selling these categories now versus sticking around for potential-but-risky future gains . It’s not like we’re particularly light on stocks right now anyway.

As it turns out, our performance so far this year has been even better than our posted performance figures of last month indicated due to a calculation error (returns for XLF and RSX, the financial and Russia ETFs, strong performing ETFs, were left out). All performance numbers have been revised, and all of the Powerfund Portfolios are beating the S&P500 this year. More impressive, the S&P 500 is still down around 26% over the last 12 months, while our worst model portfolio is off just 11.54%. Better still, our stock-heavy Aggressive Growth portfolio, is now up 1.28% over the last 12 months. This was primarily achieved with well-timed shorts on commodities, limited exposure to the hardest hit stock funds, and increased allocations to some solid outperformers.

Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) beat the market with a 2.36% gain as investors’ fears of government involvement in healthcare dropped and the excitement over riskier economically sensitive stocks subsided.

Biotech came back with a vengeance in June after some lackluster months - our SPDR Biotech (XBI) ETF climbed 7.88% for the month.

Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) ended on a flat note with a 1.79% drop in June, though we made 59.55% in the four months we owned the fund.

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