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March 2008 performance review

April 17, 2008

The Conservative Portfolio dipped -0.50% in March.

By mid-March the market was not looking good, sliding to new lows as financial services stocks continued to suffer - but once again things turned around and ended basically flat for the month. The S&P 500 was down 0.43% in March – the 5th straight monthly decline. Other indexes did better; the Dow was up 0.12%, the Nasdaq 0.34%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index 0.42%. Higher quality bonds were up slightly as well, while riskier corporate debt and most of the mortgage bond market slipped.

March was a month that diversification actually hurt returns. Most stock funds and almost all stock fund categories underperformed the S&P 500. Hard hit in March was emerging market stocks in general and Asian and Latin American stocks in particular. Supposed safe-haven gold offered no shelter, with precious metals funds down about 10% and gold bullion itself down near 10% in the last half of the month. Health care stocks were weak as well, not delivering on their supposed safety from falling earnings in a slowing economy. 

Surprisingly, real estate was among the best performing stock fund categories in March (though it was the second worst category over the last year right after financial services). Real estate debt continued to slide.  It was real estate-oriented common stocks and REITs that turned around in March, a move that likely just be a dead cat bounce or small move up after a precipitous drop.

The Harbor Bond (HABDX) benchmark-beating run of the last year or so took a break as the fund took a slight 0.17% dip. Bill Gross has slowly been moving into higher risk debt, and higher risk debt slipped in March while safe government bonds rose in price. The other problem for many bond funds in March was GSE (government sponsored entity) mortgage debt slipped relative to actual government bonds. This means the trillions in Fannie and Freddie debt took a small hit in March - and mutual funds in general own hundreds of billions worth of this debt. 

Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) fell 0.77% in March. The fund owns a decent size healthcare stake and a position in Legg Mason stock, which had a terrible March on the heels of their flagship fund (run by Bill Miller) falling sharply relative to the market. 

Investment grade bonds remained strong in March. Dreyfus Bond Market Index (DBIRX) was up 0.32% last month, about what it gained in February. 

Healthcare stocks went from mediocre to worse in March as all sides of this industry seem under pressure. Drug stocks have growing legal problems and ongoing future growth concerns and hospital chains are having trouble collecting on bills. Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) was down 5%. 

The Aggressive Portfolio dipped -0.58% in March.

By mid-March the market was not looking good, sliding to new lows as financial services stocks continued to suffer - but once again things turned around and ended basically flat for the month. The S&P 500 was down 0.43% in March – the 5th straight monthly decline. Other indexes did better; the Dow was up 0.12%, the Nasdaq 0.34%, and the Russell 2000 small cap index 0.42%. Higher quality bonds were up slightly as well, while riskier corporate debt and most of the mortgage bond market slipped.

March was a month that diversification actually hurt returns. Most stock funds and almost all stock fund categories underperformed the S&P 500. Hard hit in March was emerging market stocks in general and Asian and Latin American stocks in particular. Supposed safe-haven gold offered no shelter, with precious metals funds down about 10% and gold bullion itself down near 10% in the last half of the month. Health care stocks were weak as well, not delivering on their supposed safety from falling earnings in a slowing economy. 

Surprisingly, real estate was among the best performing stock fund categories in March (though it was the second worst category over the last year right after financial services). Real estate debt continued to slide.  It was real estate-oriented common stocks and REITs that turned around in March, a move that likely just be a dead cat bounce or small move up after a precipitous drop.

Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) fell 0.77% in March. The fund owns a decent size healthcare stake and a position in Legg Mason stock, which had a terrible March on the heels of their flagship fund (run by Bill Miller) falling sharply relative to the market. 

Healthcare stocks went from mediocre to worse in March as all sides of this industry seem under pressure. Drug stocks have growing legal problems and ongoing future growth concerns and hospital chains are having trouble collecting on bills. Healthcare Select SPDR (XLV) was down 5%. 

Tech stocks were the near lone strength in the market in March. We saw a 1.61% return on the Technology SPDR (XLK). 

The Harbor Bond (HABDX) benchmark-beating run of the last year or so took a break as the fund took a slight 0.17% dip. Bill Gross has slowly been moving into higher risk debt, and higher risk debt slipped in March while safe government bonds rose in price. The other problem for many bond funds in March was GSE (government sponsored entity) mortgage debt slipped relative to actual government bonds. This means the trillions in Fannie and Freddie debt took a small hit in March - and mutual funds in general own hundreds of billions worth of this debt. 

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