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July 2005 performance review

August 17, 2005

In July the Conservative portfolio rose 0.66%. Bonds suffered as rates finally crept up, while the hot stock market countered the dip in bonds.

Junk bonds were strong, even though higher-grade bonds dragged. This can sometimes happen when investors are optimistic about corporate health. Since ordinary bonds slipped, the extra yield from owning higher risk bonds over safer bonds is slimmer than it was a month ago. Vanguard High Yield Corporate was up 0.92%

Utility stocks continued to perform well – strange in a rising rate month. The same goes (but to a lesser extent) for Vanguard Dividend Growth, which rose 3.11%, even though dividend paying stocks become less valuable as interest rates climb (why settle for a measly 2% dividend when safe bonds pay 5, maybe 6%?). Big market increases trump such considerations, at least in the shorter run. Interest rates are still quite low, notably with longer term bonds, and don’t represent much of a draw from stocks – so far.

Foreign bonds continued on a weaker path, and we’re itching for more dollar weakness to increase allocations here. American Century International Bond was down .80% for the month.

Healthcare stocks moved with the market. The Health Care Select SPDR was up 2.35%. We have yet to see out-performance in this area.

Foreign stocks were strong as well, SSgA International Growth Opportunities was up 3.47%.

In July the Aggressive Growth portfolio rose just over 3%. Bonds suffered as rates finally crept up, while the hot stock market countered the dip in bonds. While our 20% stake in bonds in the Aggressive Growth portfolio was a drag, our higher risk funds took off. Four funds in the portfolio were up over 5% for the month.

Healthcare stocks moved with the market. The Health Care Select SPDR was up 2.35%. We have yet to see out-performance in this area.

Foreign stocks were strong as well, with small cap leading the charge abroad as well as domestically. Artisan International Small Cap was up 6.83% for the month (and 113% since we bought it in 2002 – yikes). Emerging markets were strong as well, with SSgA Emerging Markets up some 6.89% - about 128% since we added the fund and the end of February 2003. On the one hand, high oil prices hurt emerging markets that need fuel to run manufacturing facilities. On the other, some emerging markets produce oil (and other commodities) and the record prices are helping those countries.

Our Technology SPDR was up 5.52% - not quite as good as the Nasdaq’s 6.2% jump in July, but a nice plus for the portfolio. The ETF is up 11.2% since added to the portfolio three months ago.

July was a good month for large cap in general; Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 rose near 3%.

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