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February 2003 performance review

March 15, 2003

The Conservative portfolio was almost completely flat in February. The positive action was again from bond funds. Bonds were strong on investor's fear of war and stocks across the board, with the portfolio's high yield, foreign, and investment grade U.S. bond funds all up over 1%. 

Stocks were slightly weak in February, with the S&P 500 and Dow down about 1.5% each, with small cap stocks down a sharper -3%. Riskier growth stocks were bucked the trend, with the NASDAQ up over 1%. Since the Conservative portfolio owns more value-oriented stocks, the funds here were down with the market. American Century Equity Income and the just removed Strong Dividend Income fund were both down over 2%.

The aggressive growth portfolio fell over 1%. The Fidelity New Markets Income fund helped yet again up 3.53%. Emerging market bonds are now the strongest bond class over most trailing time frames, including 10 year, which makes us consider lightening up. This in contrast to emerging market stocks which have been terrible over the last decade. For some reason its been great business lending money to emerging markets, just not owning businesses there.

Japan was flat. Trouble started again in Japan in March as the country's equivalent of Alan Greenspan was replaced with a choice most derided as the status quo, not a change agent investors think is required.

Stocks were slightly weak in February, with the S&P 500 and Dow down about 1.5% each, with small cap stocks down a sharper -3%. Riskier growth stocks were bucked the trend, with the NASDAQ up over 1%. We'd expect this portfolio to do a bit better in a month where riskier asset classes showed strength, but only the emerging market bond fund was positive this month. Even our junk bond fund in this portfolio (Northeast Investors) was down slightly. 

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