As investors get optimistic, riskier assets tend to outperform. As they get more pessimistic, safer assets tend to win. While there were some big ups and downs in the stock market in 2007, the real fear was in the bond market - the place where real estate bubble borrowing goes to find a buyer.
In 2007 investors started to question the likelihood that all these trillions in borrowing would get repaid. What started in real-estate-related debt moved to all consumer debt and even lower grade corporate borrowing. Where did all this newly conservative money flock? Good ole' Uncle Sam debt. That's right - capitalists favorite whipping boy, the government, is the investment of choice when the going gets rough.
But the real winner in 2007 was bond king Bill Gross, who's negative outlook on the economy and general suspicion of the fancy financial footwork in the housing market led his bond funds to a strong return in 2007, after a ho-hum 2006:
The Pimco Total Return fund that Gross runs scored a gain of 8.6% last year, a higher return than 90% of its peer bond funds -- and better than the 6.4% gain of the average stock fund -- after Gross' gamble that the housing crisis would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates paid off late in the last third of the year.
For the fourth quarter, Gross' fund returned 3.8%."
Safety First
As investors get optimistic, riskier assets tend to outperform. As they get more pessimistic, safer assets tend to win. While there were some big ups and downs in the stock market in 2007, the real fear was in the bond market - the place where real estate bubble borrowing goes to find a buyer.
In 2007 investors started to question the likelihood that all these trillions in borrowing would get repaid. What started in real-estate-related debt moved to all consumer debt and even lower grade corporate borrowing. Where did all this newly conservative money flock? Good ole' Uncle Sam debt. That's right - capitalists favorite whipping boy, the government, is the investment of choice when the going gets rough.
Look no further than Vanguard for an indication how the bond market was in 2007. Vanguard Long-Term U.S. Treasury (VUSTX) was up 9.2%, while Vanguard High Yield Corporate (VWEHX) was up a paltry 2%.
But the real winner in 2007 was bond king Bill Gross, who's negative outlook on the economy and general suspicion of the fancy financial footwork in the housing market led his bond funds to a strong return in 2007, after a ho-hum 2006:
The Pimco Total Return fund that Gross runs scored a gain of 8.6% last year, a higher return than 90% of its peer bond funds -- and better than the 6.4% gain of the average stock fund -- after Gross' gamble that the housing crisis would force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates paid off late in the last third of the year.
For the fourth quarter, Gross' fund returned 3.8%."
We've had a long-time Powerfund Portfolio holding in Bill Gross-managed Harbor Bond Institutional (HABDX), which was up 8.7% in 2007.
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