The current rise in riskier assets may be caused by professional investors trying to get ahead of the next asset bubble. While investors with their own money are avoiding stock funds after a decade-plus of go-nowhere performance, minimal dividends, and major dips, pros who have the luxury of investing other people’s money are starting to focus on the asset bubbles created over the last 15 or so years, in part by Federal Reserve policies.  ...read the rest of this article»

The strongest stock categories in September where technology funds, which gained 13%, and small cap growth, up 12.8%. Japan, utilities, and real estate posted more modest gains, up 7%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively. Strong bond areas included emerging market bond funds, up 3.2% and high yield (junk) bonds, up 2.9%. ...read the rest of this article»

In August our Conservative portfolio was down -0.8% while our Aggressive portfolio was down 1.8%. Stocks sank last month and bonds were strong once again.  The S&P 500 index fund was down 4.53% while the total bond market index fund was up 1.61%. Smaller cap stocks were hit hard, down 7.4%. The Nasdaq was in equally hot water, off about 6.2%. This took most stock mutual funds down more than the S&P 500 as the S&P 500 tends to be larger cap oriented than most funds.  ...read the rest of this article»

Most major indexes were up almost exactly as much as the S&P 500; the Nasdaq delivered a 6.9% uptick and the smaller cap Russell 2000 gained 6.87%. Foreign stocks got a double boost from a falling US dollar and rebound in stocks, some from a sharper drop on the way down  (best illustrated by our new Vanguard European ETF, which climbed 14.18% for the month). ...read the rest of this article»

Once again we’re seeing interest rates decline as the reality of a slow economy and low demand for borrowing trumps fears of government-fueled inflation. Junk bonds performed surprisingly well. Normally, if there is such a thing as  “normally” in investing, the boost high yield bonds prices get from lower interest rates during a sliding stock market would be overridden by growing economic fears and expectations for higher defaults in the future on high yield bonds. This is largely why junk bonds did so badly in 2008.  ...read the rest of this article»

May was the first truly bad month for stocks and higher-risk bonds since the great comeback that started a little over a year ago. The only fund categories that were up, besides funds that short, were municipal bond funds and federal government bond funds. Funny how whenever there is a global panic of any size investors pile into what is supposedly the root of all evil in the economy, fiscally irresponsible governments. ...read the rest of this article»

Europe is falling out of favor with investors fast, as if it’s finally dawning on the world that all this money going overseas to avoid America’s dismal future may have invested in an even worse one. The US dollar wasn’t going to fall forever, and European economies were no better than America’s, with all the things investors supposedly hate about America and then some: high unemployment, expensive government spending programs, debts, etc. ...read the rest of this article»

Stocks are heating up. February’s roughly 3% return was doubled in March with a 6% increase in the S&P 500. Tech stocks logged in another market-beating month as the Nasdaq rose 7.14%, eclipsed by even hotter small-cap stocks which took the Russell 2000 up 8.14%. It’s as if everybody started getting sick of low yields on cash and CDs all at once. Most stock fund categories performed close to the S&P 500 in March. ...read the rest of this article»

In February the S&P 500 rebounded 3.09%, erasing most of January’s decline and leaving the index down 0.61% for the year (though still up some 53% for the last twelve months – a period starting at about the bottom of the market during the financial panic). Our average model portfolio is essentially flat, down 0.05% for these first two months of 2010. ...read the rest of this article»

Just about everything that went up faster in the comeback slipped harder in January. The Nasdaq slid 5.37% (though small caps were down 3.68%) more in line with the larger caps in the S&P500. Interest rates dipped down with long term treasuries returning about 2.5% for the month. Surprisingly, high-yield junk bonds were up for the month, bucking the overall trend of the meek doing better in January. ...read the rest of this article»