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November 2009 Performance Review

12/16/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Performance Review

The S&P 500 rose just under 6% in November -- enough to bring us to a 25% gain for the year (though the market is still down by 16% over the last three years). The Dow had an even bigger month, scoring a near 7% return. The Nasdaq posted a 4.87% gain. In general larger-cap stocks beat smaller caps, with the Russell 2000 small cap index delivering a ho-hum-by-comparison 3.14% advance. Interest rates crept back down delivering a 1.68% return for long-term bond holders, though the one-year performance is only 1.4%

The Bigger They Are, the Harder They Fall

12/03/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Feature Article

Although bubbles appear obvious in hindsight, when you're in the midst of one, everything feels quite rational. Whether speculating in Florida real estate, Internet stocks, gold, or even tulip bulbs, most participants in the frenzy could recount their financial ruin by saying, "I guess you had to be there."

October 2009 Performance Review

11/17/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Performance Review

Well it couldn’t keep going straight up…After seven months in a row of gains (save for a basically flat June), the S&P 500 took a breather and slipped 1.87% in October. As it turns out, our buys in March were well timed. Too bad we cashed out a little too early on some of the fastest gainers in this rebound.

Missing the Last Hurrah: Our Recipe for Success

11/04/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Feature Article

Fund managers are arguably quite skilled at determining relative valuations. For example, an emerging markets manager can tell whether a Brazilian telecom company is a better deal than a Mexican cement company, but he'll never sell his emerging markets stocks after realizing emerging markets may be in a bubble. That's our job. We pull away the punch bowl before the market gets too drunk.

September 2009 Performance Review

10/20/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Performance Review

The rebound continues. How time flies. It almost seems like years ago – not a mere six months – that the financial world was crashing down around us. If this continues we’ll be setting new records in how quickly bad times can be fixed by merely reinflating new bubbles. The real estate bubble took a few years to pull us out of the tech bubble / Nasdaq crash.

Zero — The New Black

10/02/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Feature Article

Recently, fund investors have abandoned money market funds and similar near-zero interest investments, like short-term government bonds, in search of higher returns. Of course, being overly cautious is usually a bad idea. But trying to capitalize on irrationally high returns on higher-risk investments while eschewing safer investments isn't very smart, either.

August 2009 Performance Review

09/17/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Performance Review

In August, just about everything went up. The S&P 500 rose 3.6%, pushing the year-to-date return on the market further into double-digit territory. The Nasdaq, which had been leading from the market low in early March, was up just 1.55% for the month. Small-cap stocks were somewhere in the middle with the Russell 2000 index gaining 2.87%. Even bonds had a good month as interest rates turned back down in the face of signs the economy was on the mend. Longer-term government bonds were up 1.78%, while the total bond market posted a just over 1% gain.

Broad View

09/03/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Feature Article

Stocks should be the best performers over the next decade. This prediction has less to do with our overall outlook on the economy, market, and valuations, and more to do with where investors are putting their money. Investors often shift money to broad categories and specific areas after a hot streak and shortly before a period of under-performance starts.

July 2009 Performance Review

08/19/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Performance Review

A listless June was quickly forgotten thanks to a hot July. The S&P 500 was up 7.58% last month with similar gains in other stock indexes. The Dow climbed 8.75%, the Nasdaq gained 7.82% and smaller-cap stocks rose 9.63%. Treasury bonds returned 0.77% as any interest rate increases turned out to be temporary. Oddly, investors seem pretty confident the economy is turning around, yet don’t seem to think interest rates are going to take off any time soon, hence the low rates on Treasury bonds.

At Some Point

08/03/09 - Powerfund Portfolios Feature Article

From the March low (hit just a few days after our last buy in our model portfolios), the market is up around 50% - among the greatest returns in a few months ever. Makes one wonder how much faster stocks could possibly go up in a short time period. What if the government did what everybody wanted it to do? Perhaps good and bad government policy is overrated as it pertains to stock prices.