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June 2010 Performance Review

Once again we’re seeing interest rates decline as the reality of a slow economy and low demand for borrowing trumps fears of government-fueled inflation. Junk bonds performed surprisingly well. Normally, if there is such a thing as  “normally” in investing, the boost high yield bonds prices get from lower interest rates during a sliding stock market would be overridden by growing economic fears and expectations for higher defaults in the future on high yield bonds. This is largely why junk bonds did so badly in 2008. 

New Model Portfolios

June marks the 100th month we’ve published the Powerfund Portfolios newsletter, and to mark the occasion, we’re making some executive changes to our model portfolios. We’ll be reducing the number of model portfolios and (eventually) moving to daily performance updates.

June 2010 Trade Alert!

We're making trades in both the Conservative and Aggressive Powerfund Portfolios, effective June 30th, 2010.

May 2010 Performance Review

May was the first truly bad month for stocks and higher-risk bonds since the great comeback that started a little over a year ago. The only fund categories that were up, besides funds that short, were municipal bond funds and federal government bond funds. Funny how whenever there is a global panic of any size investors pile into what is supposedly the root of all evil in the economy, fiscally irresponsible governments.

Greece Fire

We  want to be in the fund categories other investors avoid. During the market comeback's last hurrah, investors began piling back into junk bonds and foreign, small cap, natural resources, and commodities funds. We prefer investing in these areas when prices are down as investors scramble for safety. Today's investors are worried about inflation, which usually ensures inflation won't be a big problem.

May 2010 Trade Alert!

In recent commentary we noted pending trades to move us away from higher risk, cyclical bond and stock categories and towards lower default risk bonds and less cyclical stock fund categories. We want to be in fund categories that other investors are avoiding. During the last hurrah of this market comeback, investors are piling back into foreign markets, junk bonds, small cap, natural resource and commodities, and the like.

April 2010 Performance Review

Europe is falling out of favor with investors fast, as if it’s finally dawning on the world that all this money going overseas to avoid America’s dismal future may have invested in an even worse one. The US dollar wasn’t going to fall forever, and European economies were no better than America’s, with all the things investors supposedly hate about America and then some: high unemployment, expensive government spending programs, debts, etc.

Up and Away?

While the ten-year return is still slightly negative, over the last 12-months the S&P 500 was up just under 39%. The 70% run-up from the lows of early March are fueling optimism. Just not around here. We’re planning on slimming down our stock stakes soon. As dyed in the wool contrarians, we prefer when stocks seem to have nowhere to go but down.

March 2010 Performance Review

Stocks are heating up. February’s roughly 3% return was doubled in March with a 6% increase in the S&P 500. Tech stocks logged in another market-beating month as the Nasdaq rose 7.14%, eclipsed by even hotter small-cap stocks which took the Russell 2000 up 8.14%. It’s as if everybody started getting sick of low yields on cash and CDs all at once. Most stock fund categories performed close to the S&P 500 in March.

April Fools?

Are investors who buy stocks now April fools? Stocks are definitely more expensive than they were during the financial panic, but they're cheaper than they were right before it started, back when the Dow tipped the scales at 14,000.