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October (Not So) Surprise

October 2008 was one for the record books. The Dow suffered two of the worst single days in its history: October 9th, closing down 7.33%, and October 15th, experiencing an even harsher 7.87% one-day drop. September wasn't much kinder, especially September 29th, when the Dow plummeted 6.98%, accounting for the nineteenth worst single-day drop in the history of the Dow.

Ask MAX: Why Is My Gold Fund Down?

Stacey Asks:

Why did Evergreen Precious Metals A (EKWAX) tank so badly? Is there a bright side?"

After Monday’s drop, Evergreen Precious Metals had fallen about 68% since its peak in March 2008. That's more than the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, MSCI EAFE Index, junk bond market, emerging market bond market, classic car market, housing market, and subprime loan market. Okay, maybe not more than subprime, but you get the point.

What's most surprising, and probably the root of your question, is that the fund has fallen far further than gold itself, that shiny metal that comprises the core of the precious metals funds. If you compare this fund to the Gold ETF (see streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF [GLD]), you won't be impressed with your fund's performance. But if you compare it to other gold funds, you might feel a bit better. Popular gold funds like Vanguard Precious Metals And Mining (VGPMX), Fidelity Select Gold (FSAGX), Oppenheimer Gold & Special Miners (OPGSX), Franklin Gold And Precious Metals (FKRCX), and USAA Mutual Funds Precious Metals (USAGX) are in equally rough (or worse) shape.

As it turns out, gold-related companies are no more magical than any other commodity-related companies you'd find in a natural resource fund. We've just witnessed one of the fastest drops in broad commodity prices in history. The fact that the nosedive followed the launch of dozens of commodity funds inspired by investor fascination with 'hard assets' should come as no surprise.

September 2008 performance review

The S&P 500 dropped  8.91% in September, which was the second-worst single month for the index since we launched our model portfolios in April of 2002. (The worst month ever was September of that same year). While the Nasdaq was down just over 12%, investors in U.S. markets had a (gulp) relatively easy time of it. Foreign markets fell about 15% in September with emerging markets down around 20%.

October 2008 Trade alert!

We know it is difficult to buy after losing significant money in the worst market drop since the Great Depression. Most fund investors are either sitting still or selling. We can’t do that at MAXadvisor – it is against our philosophy.

Surf’s Up

In the last issue we noted we’d likely need to see a 500 point one-day Dow drop on some big bank or other company failure to get fund investors to panic sell at enough of a clip to warrant us stepping up again and buying. Monday’s Dow drop of 777 certainly fits the bill and surely led to some big sales.