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October 2005 performance review

The Conservative portfolio fell 1.25% in October as both bonds and stocks were weak. The S&P500 dropped 1.67% while the Lehman Brothers Long Term Treasury Index fell 1.88%. Smaller-cap stocks fared worse, with the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks down 3.1%.

Ask MAX: Should I sell based on Cramer's warning?

11/03/05 -

Yehuda from Brooklyn asks:

I'm 25 and live in Brooklyn. Jim Cramer said the market is going to crash with the economic news of the last three weeks. Should I sell all my stock funds and buy bonds?"

Take your hands off your keyboard and step away from your E*TRADE account. Jim Cramer is probably wrong, and is definitely not the guy to go to for sound investing advice.

We love watching Cramer's new show as much as the next guy. We love his sixteen-cups-of-coffee delivery, his aggressive-as-a-rabid-Pit Bull stock picks, even the dopey sound effects. 'Mad Money' is unquestionably the liveliest show on the toned-down, post-Enron, post-Nasdaq 5000 CNBC.

But while Cramer is a bright guy with a lot of real world investment experience, his show is first and foremost entertainment. We wouldn't base our investment decisions on Cramer's television rants any more than we would on the advice Uncle Earle gives us at Thanksgiving dinner. Okay, Cramer is probably a safer bet than Uncle Earle, but you should be wary of all famous (and oft-wrong) market prognosticators.

Helicopter Ben

Ben Bernanke is not an old Bush chum or just semi-qualified for the job. The stock market did not react badly to the news. Bernanke seems more than deserving of the top job in the entire world of economics. But as I dug a little deeper, I uncovered some details that are a little scary.

September 2005 performance review

The Conservative portfolio was essentially flat in September, up just 0.08%. Bonds and stocks flipped once again – bonds fell while stocks went up.

Ask MAX: Should I Invest in a Loaded 401(k)?

Yousef from Idaho asks:

I recently started my first job that has offered a 401(k) plan, and I was very excited to begin investing. The problem is, the funds in the plan are load funds, and after being a fan of your site I know that load funds should be avoided at all costs. Should I invest in my company's loaded 401(k) plan?"

We've reviewed hundreds of 401(k) plans for our Private Management clients and for investors who have used our MAXadvisor 401(k) Planner service. While many of those plans offer funds that normally charge a sales load to investors outside of tax-deferred accounts, the vast majority of those plans waive the regular load charge to people who invest through a 401(k) plan. We've often seen Templeton funds offered without a load charge through company-sponsored retirement plans that would cost investors 5.75% if they bought it at Etrade outside of their 401(k).

There are, however, some very lousy 401(k) plans out there that do, inexplicably, force participants to pay load charges. The dubious rationale behind paying load charges is that some investors need help choosing the funds that are best for them from the ten-thousand plus funds available. How this rationale holds up in a 401(k) plan in which investors have limited choices is beyond us.

When Disaster Strikes

When the stock market closed on Friday August 26th, Hurricane Katrina was barely a blip on investors’ radar. The hurricane was a relatively ordinary Category 1 when it rolled through Florida with minimal damage. Monday told a different story, as it became clear that raincoat clad news reporters actually didn’t oversell this one. Not by a long shot.

Ask MAX: A Good Place for Some Short-Time Money?

09/22/05 - Ask MAX

Chris from Tempe asks:

I'm 32 and have been saving pretty heavily for three years. I was planning on buying a house, but there is also a possibility that I will use the money to start a business. I should have enough money accumulated to make the down payment in roughly one year, but I want to have access to the money in the interim in case I go the business route. I realize that stock funds are too volatile for short-term savings so I am wondering; what is a better place than my bank's low-interest savings and checking accounts to keep my money safe for such a short period of time?

You're right on about stock funds being too risky for a short-term investment. There really is no stock or bond fund that is immune from at least some degree of volatility. Even the MAXadvisor Newsletter's Safety Portfolio can get hit with short-term losses, which is exactly what investors like you don't want when they absolutely, positively don't want to suffer any loss of capital.

As you mentioned, your bank's savings accounts are certainly safe (in fact, they are largely insured by the government), but the amount of interest they generally pay is so low (especially for smaller balances) that you could do almost as well burying your loot in the backyard. Fortunately there are several attractive options for a guy in your position. Here's our short list

August 2005 performance review

Junk bonds were the weakest part of the bond market, possibly because investors are starting to fear the solvency of corporate America once again, in light of the financial troubles hitting the airline industry. Some more leveraged companies – beyond just airlines – could have trouble eating the higher costs of energy for long periods of time.

The Next 2 to 4 Years

There are countless ways to try to profit around the world, but how much you can expect to earn investing does have limits, at least in the long haul.

Focus On: Utilities

(Published 09/01/05) One of the hottest fund categories over the last three years (ending 8/31/05) has been utilities. The three-year total return for the Dow Jones Utility index is a whopping 90% –double that of the S&P500 over the same time period. The typical mutual fund in this category scored a whopping 73% return. Our favorite in this category, the American Century Utilities fund (BULIX), which has appeared in several of our MAXadvisor Newsletter model portfolios, scored a 77.5% return over the same three-year period.

With investor excitement for utilities stocks at the highest levels since the days before the Enron debacle, we are finally downgrading utilities to a negative rating. We think utilities funds should underperform the market and 60% of stock fund categories in the next one to three years.

Utilities has been one of our favorite categories since we started the MAXadvisor Newsletter. From April 2002 through the end of January 2004 we gave the sector our highest rating (Most Attractive – should outperform the market and 80% of stock fund categories over the next 1 to 3 years). Then, for the next eight months, we maintained a positive rating (Interesting – should outperform the market and 60% of stock fund categories over the next 1 to 3 years). We then downgraded utilities to a neutral, and finally sold much of our utility stakes in our model portfolios a few months ago. But even after our downgrades, the funds in the category just kept climbing higher.

Despite the sector’s continued outperformance, we’re now more confident than ever that a utilities downturn is imminent. The only reason we’re not downgrading to our worst rating is that new utility funds are not sprouting up like mushrooms (new fund launches are one of the strongest contrarian signals of trouble ahead for a category), but existing utilities funds and ETFs are hugely oversold already. The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Sector Index Fund (IDU) has $800 million in assets. Our own favorite, Utilities SPDR (XLU), has an unbelievable $1.97 billion in assets.

For comparison, the Technology SPDR (XLK) – which is also a portfolio holding of ours – has around $1.3 billion. The only sector ETF with more money is the Energy SPDR (XLE), and we just slapped our worst rating on natural resource funds – the category energy falls under.

Can you imagine utilities funds being more popular than tech funds? Certainly not a few years ago. This is why utilities have doubled the market return in the last three years – nobody wanted anything to do with these during the dot-com bubble. Between Enron’s collapse and stories of over-leveraged, new-economy-style energy companies teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, the stocks had nowhere to go but up. The fact that a utilities index paid almost 6% in dividend yield didn’t entice anybody.

The ultimate buy sign was when Vanguard decided to convert their utility fund (one of the only good, low-fee funds around, our former top favorite and portfolio holding) into a plain-vanilla, dividend income fund. Vanguard did this in late 2002 because they couldn’t give away shares of a utility fund at the time.

But the category has now come full circle. This is not a good time to buy utilities funds. It is a good time to sell, which is what we’ve been doing all year in our newsletter and other portfolios. Performance has brought utilities stocks back to their pre-Enron levels, when utilities stocks were priced as if failure in their leveraged business models was impossible.
Worse, yields have fallen near proportionally with the rising prices (dividend increases haven’t come close to matching stock price appreciation). Today’s utility buyer is getting a dividend yield perhaps 1% over the S&P500 (3% instead of 2%) and about the same P/E ratio for owning heavily regulated businesses in one of the slowest growth and oldest economy areas around.

Sure, new home buying will lead to some growth, but come on, is your run-of-the-mill electricity utility going to grow earnings like other components in the S&P500 – like Pfizer, Wal-Mart, and Microsoft? Utilities are supposed to be cheap; they are a nice bond alternative that can perform better with inflation because dividends can go up with price increases, but that’s about it. Today’s utility fund buyer is looking at the near doubling over the last three years while ignoring the fact that utility stocks are going to have a tough enough time keeping pace with the market over the next few years (much less outperforming even more).

We’re sticking with our two lone favorites here largely because there are not too many compelling choices – at least since Vanguard made their utility fund disappear. Does Vanguard regret this move now? Maybe. They launched a couple utility index funds last year (their original utility fund was actively managed). The first was an ETF, Vanguard Utilities VIPERs (VPU), followed a few months later by one admiral class open-end fund with a $100,000 minimum, Vanguard Utilities Index Fund Admiral Shares (VUIAX). Both are fine alternatives to our picks below as well.

Most utilities funds are load funds because brokers need something to sell to widows and orphans and still land commissions since churning a stock account for those needing fixed income and low-risk could get them into trouble. What few utility funds are available without a load are fairly expensive. Since utilities should be bought primarily for yield, this is unacceptable. At the current paltry utilities yields, a 1.2% expense ratio quickly turns a utility fund dividend yield into an S&P500 index fund yield because fund fees are paid with dividends first.

We had our highest rating on down-and-out utilities back in 2002 and 2003. In 2004 the area was about the hottest this side of energy. Money keeps dumping into utilities stocks, and dividend yields are now paltry after even more big gains in stock prices in 2005 (beyond what we expected). Given the likely business growth, this is bordering on absurd. When interest rates move up this hot area is going to fall.

Category Rating: (Weak) – should underperform the market and 60% of stock fund categories

Previous Rating (08/31/05): (Neutral) - Should match the markets return and perform in the middle of other stock fund categories

Expected 12-month return:-2%

1. American Century Utilities Inv (BULIX) 8/02 77.52% 38.99% 9.52% 33.69%
2. Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU) 1/04 43.98% 34.61% 9.07% 34.09%