POWERFUND PORTFOLIOS Since 2002
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Aggressive PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE - VALUE OF $10,000

This chart shows the performance of the Aggressive model portfolio model portfolio since inception (3/31/02) compared to the S&P 500 (including dividends) as represented by the Vanguard 500 fund (VFINX) based on an initial investment of $10,000.

Chart
Aggressive
Conservative
S&P500

Aggressive PORTFOLIO QUICK FACTS

Average Expense Ratio 0.14%
Minimum Investment Reg/IRA $10K/$10K
Number of Holdings 14
% Stock Funds 64%
% Bond/Cash 32%
% Alt/Other 4%
Current % Risk of S&P 500 75%
Portfolio Standard Deviation 13.3
Average Holding Period 44 months
Average Stock Fund Turnover 15%
Portfolio Inception 03/31/2002
Last Trade 09/11/2020

Aggressive PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION

Broad Allocation
Categories

Aggressive PORTFOLIO VERSION HISTORY

The Aggressive Powerfund Portfolo has been around since early 2002, and in that time it's gone through lots of changes. You can see each version of this portfolio in the chart below. Click on the double arrows by the dates at the top of the chart to navigate.

3/28/2002 - 6/27/2002
We sold BGRIX, because American Century noticed there was no investor interest in global natural resources and decided to close it. Unfortunately, this marked the start of a multi-year boom in global natural resources. Takeaway: the area investors don't want to invest in is often the best place to be.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
20% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 5.72%
10% Dreyfus Emerging Markets (DRFMX) Emerging Market 2.67%
10% Northeast Investors (NTHEX) High Yield Bond 2.48%
20% Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) Small Cap Value 2.15%
10% American Century Global Natura (BGRIX) Alternative 1.37%
10% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 0.29%
10% Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) Foreign Bond 0.20%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom -8.87%
Period Portfolio Return: 1.37%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 14.73%
6/28/2002 - 2/27/2003
We were sticking with emerging markets, but DRFMX had to go in exchange for SSEMX, because Dreyfus was adding sales loads. The market was now on the rebound, but the Powerfund Portfolios were beating it on nearly all fronts. Many areas that missed the late 1990's large-cap growth rally were zooming ahead: our microcap BRSIX fund was up 45% in just a few months.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
10% Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) Foreign Bond 12.32%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom 4.42%
20% Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) Small Cap Value -2.88%
10% Northeast Investors (NTHEX) High Yield Bond -3.67%
20% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified -7.11%
10% Dreyfus Emerging Markets (DRFMX) Emerging Market -9.01%
10% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend -9.82%
10% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan -25.04%
Period Portfolio Return: -5.21%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 9.14%
2/28/2003 - 7/30/2003
Emerging market debt was overheating, so we cut down on FNMIX (too early, it turns out). We also cut down on ultra-hot micro-cap stocks by lowering BRSIX from a 20% stake to a 5%, also too soon, as was the move to short-term bonds with VFSTX. We were now at a 70% stocks/30% bonds mix (down from 80/20), but we were still beating the S&P.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
20% Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) Small Cap Value 33.25%
20% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 26.45%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom 25.59%
10% SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) Emerging Market 18.30%
10% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 16.60%
10% Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) Foreign Bond 14.02%
10% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan 10.50%
10% Northeast Investors (NTHEX) High Yield Bond 5.98%
Period Portfolio Return: 20.90%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 2.74%
7/31/2003 - 2/26/2004
We kicked up the stock allocation to 75% at the end of February , but went from smaller-cap foreign fund ARTJX to large-cap U.S. fund BRSIX. This turned out to be well before the end of foreign outperformance, but not a bad time to start cutting back on small cap. 2004 was the end of major small-cap outperformance of the S&P 500 until 2010. We also moved out of higher-risk debt with this trade.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) Small Cap Value 33.51%
20% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 33.50%
10% SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) Emerging Market 31.73%
10% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan 31.42%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom 20.75%
5% Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) Foreign Bond 13.18%
15% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 11.92%
10% Northeast Investors (NTHEX) High Yield Bond 10.87%
15% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond 2.06%
Period Portfolio Return: 20.26%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 3.56%
2/27/2004 - 10/28/2004
Mega-cap stocks were weak, and microcap stocks remained hot, so we increased our stake in larger cap U.S. stocks and sold out of microcap BRSIX. We'd enjoyed a 93.93% return in BRSIX from April 2002 through the end of October 2004 (although we'd sold some along the way) - 87% over the S&P 500, and among our best wins versus the market. We were sad to see it go, but our timing was good: the outperformance of BRISX over the S&P 500 stopped in 2005, and didn't return until 2010.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
10% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan 7.47%
15% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 4.69%
10% Payden Global Short Bond (PYGSX) Global Bond 0.67%
15% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond 0.66%
10% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified -1.04%
10% SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) Emerging Market -1.24%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom -1.38%
5% Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) Small Cap Value -3.84%
15% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend -4.53%
Period Portfolio Return: 0.56%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 1.07%
10/29/2004 - 4/28/2005
International was up big, so we decided to cut back. We reduced ARTJX, PRJPX, GABTX, and SSEMX, as well as PYGSX, on the bond front and added more conservative U.S. bonds and stocks. Although we were now up to 80% stocks/20% bonds, a mere 15% of it was held abroad, and the portfolio was becoming less risky based on where we perceived the risk to be. We were staying ahead of the S&P, even with the drag of our bond allocation.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
10% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 18.27%
10% SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) Emerging Market 17.15%
15% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 7.72%
10% Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) Telecom 7.49%
10% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan 7.10%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 2.92%
10% Payden Global Short Bond (PYGSX) Global Bond 0.19%
15% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond -0.38%
Period Portfolio Return: 6.67%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 4.65%
4/29/2005 - 2/27/2006
With SSEMX up 53.62% in the previous period, we decided to sell in February of 2006 for a total return of 206.93%. This was a touch early, since the peak in emerging markets didn't occur until late 2007. We added telecom stocks with VOX, which underperformed similar funds until the collapse in emerging markets began in late 2007 - but still delivered our top return of 18.89% during this period. Our moves out of hot and into cold began to hurt our performance vs. the S&P 500. This was the first trading period since our start in early 2002 in which the Aggressive portfolio fell short of the S&P.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) Emerging Market 55.52%
5% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan 45.34%
5% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 35.90%
15% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 20.85%
5% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 15.14%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 7.57%
35% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 7.49%
15% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond 2.16%
5% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 1.74%
Period Portfolio Return: 13.72%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 0.18%
2/28/2006 - 10/30/2006
Goodbye, red-hot ARTJX, which we owned for just a few months after the fund launched when it was a wee, little, new fund. Our total return for the international small-capper was nearly 200%. We also closed out FMIMX for twice the S&P's return. We added XBI, which did well in the ensuing mess, and JARFX, which did not. Our second period of S&P 500 underperformance would be our last before the 50%+ slide in stocks ending in March 2009. We were down to 75% stocks.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% Vanguard Telecom VIPER (VOX) Telecom 14.57%
35% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 8.13%
5% Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) International Diversified 4.60%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 3.96%
15% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond 3.20%
15% FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) Blend 3.15%
5% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 2.35%
5% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 1.64%
5% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan -4.42%
Period Portfolio Return: 5.09%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -3.69%
10/31/2006 - 6/28/2007
We sold PRJPX, VOX, and VFSTX, and cut back on BRLIX in a big end-of-June '07 trade. We were positioning ourselves for market trouble with ALHIX, a long/short fund that ultimately disappointed but didn't fall like the market. We should have gone with government bonds, although we did add VBIIX to lock in higher interest rates. With a new stake in VUG, we were at just 65% stocks - our lowest to date, and considering 5% was long/short, we were well positioned for trouble ahead. The market nearly peaked in July 2007, but had one more hurrah in early October '07 before the long slide began.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global 21.79%
5% Vanguard Telecom VIPER (VOX) Telecom 20.39%
5% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 12.73%
35% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 9.03%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 7.69%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 6.43%
20% Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) Shorter Term Bond 2.62%
5% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 0.72%
5% T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) Japan -1.62%
Period Portfolio Return: 8.83%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -1.76%
6/29/2007 - 12/28/2007
We switched from one long/short fund to another (ALHIX to NARFX) after the former behaved badly during some market mayhem in the early stages of the crisis. During this period, we witnessed the collapse of overly engineered, supposedly safer funds, notably funds that owned investment-grade, adjustable rate mortgages.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 19.20%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global 9.42%
15% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 8.05%
20% Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) Investment Grade Bond 6.97%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth 4.16%
5% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 2.70%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 1.09%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 1.06%
5% AmCent Long-Short Eq Inv (ALHIX) Long/Short 0.18%
Period Portfolio Return: 5.73%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 6.45%
12/31/2007 - 6/27/2008
We sold some bonds and doubled up on tech. We also bought a 5% stake in a double short commodity ETF (DEE) just in time to protect us from major trouble in the global economy and commodities. DEE provided a 158% gain in a just a few months, which, along with NARFX, gave us decent returns vs. the S&P again. We were up to 75% stock funds, and buying as stocks plunged.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
15% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 2.84%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 1.02%
20% Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) Investment Grade Bond 1.01%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global -0.96%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth -1.19%
5% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology -4.85%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend -5.69%
5% Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) Long/Short -8.16%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare -13.55%
Period Portfolio Return: -2.04%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 10.04%
6/30/2008 - 10/30/2008
Buying during the panic was tough, but we did it. We sold HABDX to cut our bond stake, added VPL and VOX (once again), and bought distressed, closed-end junk bond fund MHY. We were 90% stocks and sporting a riskier bond mix. Too bad we had five months to the bottom. Another 89% move up in DEE as well as several funds that fell way under the S&P kept our losses respectable.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE) Long/Short 70.81%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 5.54%
5% Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) Long/Short 0.01%
10% Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) Investment Grade Bond -2.58%
15% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond -3.56%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend -3.60%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth -12.00%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare -12.67%
10% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology -12.72%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global -19.65%
Period Portfolio Return: -2.77%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 22.13%
10/31/2008 - 2/26/2009
In some ways, our most timely trade occurred in February 2009. We bought financial sector ETF XLF at the end of February, mere days from the bottom. We dumped MHY and were now only 5% bond funds (our lowest bond allocation ever), which coincided with the bottom of the market. We also dumped DEE right after all the big money was made, scoring a total of 389% in a down market for stocks and commodities. We only roughly matched the S&P on the rebound, but we'd fallen by about half as much on the way down.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE) Long/Short 69.82%
5% Western Asset Managed High Inc (MHY) High Yield Bond 15.36%
5% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 4.60%
5% Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) Long/Short -0.32%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare -1.34%
5% Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) Asia -7.41%
10% Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) Telecom -7.49%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare -9.46%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global -9.53%
10% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology -11.37%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth -12.04%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend -16.12%
Period Portfolio Return: -3.66%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 17.72%
2/27/2009 - 6/29/2009
We sold XLF for a quick 59% gain and pared the portfolio down to 90% stocks. Although in hindsight, the rebound had a long way to go, this wasn't our big mistake. We should have gotten out of all the safe areas that helped us on the way down and into riskier fare at this point. It was what we owned more than our overall allocation to stocks that explains this period's underperformance relative to the market. We rose above our old 2007 portfolio high in this period.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
5% Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) Financial Services 62.46%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global 36.52%
10% Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) Asia 33.96%
10% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 25.60%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 25.45%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth 24.11%
10% Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) Telecom 23.70%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 16.72%
5% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 8.27%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 1.77%
5% Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) Long/Short -2.91%
Period Portfolio Return: 23.44%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -3.76%
6/30/2009 - 5/27/2010
May 2010 saw a major risk reduction trade in which we went down to 70% stocks from 90% by selling BRLIX and NARFX and adding BULIX and PIASX. This proved too early in the recovery. We also were phasing out several of our higher and lower-risk model portfolios and adjusting for a two-model portfolio future.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth 31.21%
10% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 29.75%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global 29.59%
20% Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) Blend 27.65%
10% Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) Asia 19.95%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 19.14%
10% Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) Telecom 12.74%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 11.74%
10% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 10.24%
5% Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) Long/Short -10.41%
Period Portfolio Return: 21.56%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -0.61%
5/28/2010 - 6/29/2010
A major overhaul of holdings took place as we moved to real money trading. We ended up with a mix of 59% stock funds and 41% bonds. This was a solid return period, even on our reduced stock stake - near market upside on greatly reduced downside. We were a little too enthusiastic about European stocks following years of underperformance. Fund investors were still favoring foreign stock funds, so we should have kept the foreign allocations lower.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
20% PIA Short-Term Securities (PIASX) Mortgage Bond 0%
10% Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) Asia 0%
10% Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) Large Cap Growth 0%
10% Janus Global Research (JARFX) Global 0%
5% SPDR Biotech (XBI) Healthcare 0%
10% Harbor Bond (HABDX) Investment Grade Bond 0%
10% Technology SPDR (XLK) Technology 0%
5% Amer Centry Utility Income (BULIX) Utilities -0.49%
10% Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) Telecom -0.81%
10% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare -1.00%
Period Portfolio Return: 112.97%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -154.78%
6/30/2010 - 9/16/2011
We used Euro fears to get back up to 70% stocks, 20% of which is now foreign. We later dumped small cap JATTX due to asset bloat, and cut back on SATMX. We also dumped DEE for DTO (unfortunately, right before a big run up in oil). Our underperformance so far is due to mediocre returns in utilities (following major outperformance in the preceding months) and weak foreign fund performance.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
7% Janus Triton T (JATTX) Small Cap Growth 28.57%
6% American Century Utility Income (BULIX) Utilities 27.38%
6% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 23.53%
6% Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) Alternative 19.75%
6% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 19.38%
6% Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) Financial Services 18.15%
15% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) Mortgage Bond 17.00%
8% Scout International Discovery (UMBDX) International Diversified 16.96%
8% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) Large Cap Growth 15.99%
10% Parnassus Equity Income (PRBLX) Blend 14.63%
20% Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) Investment Grade Bond 8.02%
2% PowerShares DB Commodity Dble (DEE) Long/Short -46.89%
Period Portfolio Return: 15.81%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -4.90%
9/19/2011 - 6/27/2013
Just a minor portfolio change here. We were forced to say goodbye to Scout International Discovery after three years and an annualized return of 10%. UMBDX's fund life was tragically cut short by its parent company after a long battle with low investor interest.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
6% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 52.01%
8% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) Large Cap Growth 45.73%
8% Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) Financial Services 44.35%
10% Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Large Cap Value 43.68%
3% Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) Alternative 37.72%
6% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 33.81%
6% American Century Utility Income (BULIX) Utilities 24.81%
12% Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) International Diversified 22.06%
8% Scout International Discovery (UMBDX) International Diversified 14.00%
10% Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) Investment Grade Bond 10.52%
15% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) Mortgage Bond 8.75%
5% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) Government Bond 4.43%
3% PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) Long/Short -37.55%
Period Portfolio Return: 24.66%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -14.35%
6/28/2013 - 8/14/2013
Our goal with this major trade is to reduce overall stock exposure from 70% to 65% (not including the recent fund liquidation that reduced our official stock allocation below 70%) and switch into more out-of-favor funds and categories. As stocks have raced up in recent years our real money allocation in stocks was well over 70% and overdue for a rebalance trade.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
12% Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) International Diversified 9.87%
8% Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) Financial Services 6.90%
6% Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) Healthcare 6.52%
8% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) Large Cap Growth 6.21%
10% Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Large Cap Value 5.79%
6% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 2.94%
3% Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) Alternative 2.38%
6% American Century Utility Income (BULIX) Utilities 1.95%
10% Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) Investment Grade Bond 0.38%
15% Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) Mortgage Bond 0.04%
5% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) Government Bond -2.21%
3% PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) Long/Short -21.60%
Period Portfolio Return: 3.51%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -1.68%
8/15/2013 - 3/12/2015
From the 'good problem to have' department, this trade was primarily necessitated by the chart-topping performance of PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO), up more than 233% since our last trade here in 2013. Our DTO position needed to be significantly paired down to bring it back in line with the 4% of total portfolio we intended. We also added a 15% allocation of SPDR Barclay's International Bond ETF, as we believe it's a good time to start adding investment-grade unhedged foreign bond funds on Euro weakness.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
4% PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) Long/Short 233.05%
10% Vanguard MegaCap Growth (MGK) Large Cap Growth 35.06%
10% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) Large Cap Growth 29.29%
5% Gold Short (DZZ) Precious Metals 24.60%
25% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) Government Bond 23.81%
5% American Century Utility Income (BULIX) Utilities 16.06%
7% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 14.72%
3% Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) Alternative 13.69%
6% Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) International Diversified 7.98%
10% DoubleLine Floating Rate N (DLFRX) Shorter Term Bond 4.50%
10% iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) Emerging Market 1.74%
5% Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Count (WAFMX) Emerging Market 1.51%
Period Portfolio Return: 24.96%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -3.19%
3/13/2015 - 1/06/2016
Another major cut in size of DTO after the massive run-up recently as oil plunged. POGRX is too heavy in biotech and tech, and too popular. Time to move on. Also shifting from larger cap growth to value. Dumping microcap and one emerging markets fund. Utilities back in portfolio. Italy in. Shorting small cap and biotech for protection. Rebalances too. Minimal broad stock bond change.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
4% PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) Long/Short 66.98%
5% Gold Short (DZZ) Long/Short 8.33%
7% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 0.54%
15% SPDR Barclays Intl. Treasury (BWX) Foreign Bond -0.21%
10% PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) Large Cap Growth -0.23%
10% Vanguard MegaCap Growth (MGK) Large Cap Growth -1.26%
25% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) Government Bond -3.50%
6% Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) International Diversified -7.14%
5% Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Count (WAFMX) Emerging Market -9.58%
3% Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) Alternative -15.75%
10% iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) Emerging Market -16.83%
Period Portfolio Return: -0.93%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 0.58%
1/07/2016 - 2/27/2020
The main thing we are doing here is cutting back on longer term bonds and shifting to investments abroad. We need some sort of bet to lower the risk of more stock losses and any foreign asset should do the trick, even though globally stocks have been going down as a group lately and in general they tend to move together.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
7% Vanguard Utilities (VPU) Utilities 71.32%
8% iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) Emerging Market 70.09%
16% Vanguard Value (VTV) Large Cap Value 52.45%
20% Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) Government Bond 42.91%
5% Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) International Diversified 28.77%
6% iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI) Europe 21.24%
3% Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) Telecom 20.56%
20% SPDR Barclays Intl. Treasury (BWX) Foreign Bond 13.62%
6% Gold Short (DZZ) Long/Short -44.88%
3% Proshares Ultrashort NASDAQ Biotech (BIS) Long/Short -55.90%
3% PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) Long/Short -63.04%
3% Proshares Ultrashort Russel2000 (TWM) Long/Short -64.82%
Period Portfolio Return: 26.14%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -39.76%
2/28/2020 - 4/02/2020
Our trades here are not only because of the Coronavirus-crash - several of these positions were already on the docket to be sold. The more significant factor was actually the sharp drop in rates related to the plummeting market.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
2% PROSHARES ULTRAPRO 3X SHORT OIL (OILD) Long/Short 111.45%
2% PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ (SQQQ) Long/Short 13.93%
6% VANGUARD LONG-TERM BOND (BLV) Government Bond 5.20%
10% SPDR BLOMBERG INTL TR BOND (BWX) Foreign Bond 3.30%
6% VANGUARD SHORT-TERM CORP. BOND (VCSH) Shorter Term Bond -0.45%
6% FRANKLIN FTSE CHINA (FLCH) Asia -3.21%
12% ISHARES JP MORGAN EM BOND (LEMB) Foreign Bond -4.68%
16% VANGUARD VALUE (VTV) Large Cap Value -7.38%
6% FRANKLIN FTSE GERMANY (FLGR) Europe -8.19%
8% ISHARES MSCI BRIC (BKF) Emerging Market -8.44%
5% VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS (VEA) International Diversified -8.97%
10% VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF (VBR) Small Cap Value -11.57%
3% DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X (JDST) Long/Short -13.35%
8% VANGUARD ENERGY (VDE) Natural Resources -26.37%
Period Portfolio Return: -15.46%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -1.16%
4/03/2020 - 9/10/2020
We executed trades in both portfolios on April 3 (just over one month after our previous trades on February 28th) to cut way back on corporate bonds and deal with the cash from a liquidated inverse 3x oil ETF that the fund company shut down on March 27.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
6% FRANKLIN FTSE GERMANY (FLGR) International Diversified 47.19%
8% VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF (VBR) Small Cap Value 39.34%
6% iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) Emerging Market 31.97%
5% VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS (VEA) International Diversified 30.42%
6% FRANKLIN FTSE CHINA (FLCH) Asia 29.66%
14% Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Large Cap Value 23.22%
6% VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) Healthcare 17.54%
8% iSHARES JP MORGAN EM BOND (LEMB) Foreign Bond 17.39%
8% VANGUARD ENERGY (VDE) Natural Resources 12.56%
14% Schwab US TIPS (SCHP) Government Bond 4.80%
15% VANGUARD ST INFLATION PROTECTED (VTIP) Government Bond 3.03%
2% PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ (SQQQ) Long/Short -75.83%
2% DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X (JDST) Long/Short -82.83%
Period Portfolio Return: 15.54%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: -19.69%
9/11/2020 - Present

The relatively minor changes were primarily to shift us out of some areas that had been hot and to add some lagging stock categories.
% Name/Ticker Category Per. Ret.
6% Franklin FTSE China ETF (FLCH) Asia 1.38%
8% Vanguard Energy (VDE) Natural Resources 1.09%
2% ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) Long/Short 0.88%
2% ProShares Decline of the Retail Sto (EMTY) Long/Short 0.46%
6% VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) Healthcare 0.29%
15% Vanguard Short Term Inflation Prote (VTIP) Government Bond 0.02%
9% Schwab US TIPS (SCHP) Government Bond -0.19%
8% iShares JP Morgan Em. Bond (LEMB) Foreign Bond -0.65%
5% Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) Utilities -1.24%
14% Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Large Cap Value -1.73%
8% Vanguard Small-Cap Value (VBR) Small Cap Value -2.19%
5% Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA) International Diversified -2.26%
6% Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) Latin America -2.48%
6% Franklin FTSE Germany ETF (FLGR) International Diversified -4.36%
Period Portfolio Return: -1.03%
Period Portfolio vs. S&P: 0.72%