New User?Aggressive PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE - VALUE OF $10,000
This chart shows the performance of the Aggressive model portfolio model portfolio since inception (3/31/02) compared to the S&P 500 (including dividends) as represented by the Vanguard 500 fund (VFINX) based on an initial investment of $10,000.
Aggressive PORTFOLIO QUICK FACTS
| Average Expense Ratio | 0.27% |
| Minimum Investment Reg/IRA | $0.0K/$0.0K |
| Number of Holdings | 17 |
| % Stock Funds | 63% |
| % Bond/Cash | 21% |
| % Alt/Other | 16% |
| Current % Risk of S&P 500 | 48% |
| Portfolio Standard Deviation | 10.1 |
| Average Holding Period | 37 months |
| Average Stock Fund Turnover | 16% |
| Portfolio Inception | 03/31/2002 |
| Last Trade | 06/30/2022 |
Aggressive PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION
Broad Allocation
Categories
Aggressive PORTFOLIO VERSION HISTORY
The Aggressive Powerfund Portfolo has been around since early 2002, and in that time it's gone through lots of changes. You can see each version of this portfolio in the chart below. Click on the double arrows by the dates at the top of the chart to navigate.
3/28/2002 - 6/27/2002
We sold BGRIX, because American Century noticed there was no investor interest in global natural resources and decided to close it. Unfortunately, this marked the start of a multi-year boom in global natural resources. Takeaway: the area investors don't want to invest in is often the best place to be.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 5.72% |
| 10% | Dreyfus Emerging Markets (DRFMX) | Emerging Market | 2.67% |
| 10% | Northeast Investors (NTHEX) | High Yield Bond | 2.48% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) | Small Cap Value | 2.15% |
| 10% | American Century Global Natura (BGRIX) | Alternative | 1.37% |
| 10% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 0.29% |
| 10% | Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) | Foreign Bond | 0.20% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | -8.87% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 1.37% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 14.73% | ||
We were sticking with emerging markets, but DRFMX had to go in exchange for SSEMX, because Dreyfus was adding sales loads. The market was now on the rebound, but the Powerfund Portfolios were beating it on nearly all fronts. Many areas that missed the late 1990's large-cap growth rally were zooming ahead: our microcap BRSIX fund was up 45% in just a few months.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) | Foreign Bond | 12.32% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | 4.42% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) | Small Cap Value | -2.88% |
| 10% | Northeast Investors (NTHEX) | High Yield Bond | -3.67% |
| 20% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | -7.11% |
| 10% | Dreyfus Emerging Markets (DRFMX) | Emerging Market | -9.01% |
| 10% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | -9.82% |
| 10% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | -25.04% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -5.21% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 9.14% | ||
Emerging market debt was overheating, so we cut down on FNMIX (too early, it turns out). We also cut down on ultra-hot micro-cap stocks by lowering BRSIX from a 20% stake to a 5%, also too soon, as was the move to short-term bonds with VFSTX. We were now at a 70% stocks/30% bonds mix (down from 80/20), but we were still beating the S&P.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) | Small Cap Value | 33.25% |
| 20% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 26.45% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | 25.59% |
| 10% | SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) | Emerging Market | 18.30% |
| 10% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 16.60% |
| 10% | Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) | Foreign Bond | 14.02% |
| 10% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | 10.50% |
| 10% | Northeast Investors (NTHEX) | High Yield Bond | 5.98% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 20.90% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 2.74% | ||
We kicked up the stock allocation to 75% at the end of February , but went from smaller-cap foreign fund ARTJX to large-cap U.S. fund BRSIX. This turned out to be well before the end of foreign outperformance, but not a bad time to start cutting back on small cap. 2004 was the end of major small-cap outperformance of the S&P 500 until 2010. We also moved out of higher-risk debt with this trade.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) | Small Cap Value | 33.51% |
| 20% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 33.50% |
| 10% | SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) | Emerging Market | 31.73% |
| 10% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | 31.42% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | 20.75% |
| 5% | Fidelity New Markets Income (FNMIX) | Foreign Bond | 13.18% |
| 15% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 11.92% |
| 10% | Northeast Investors (NTHEX) | High Yield Bond | 10.87% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | 2.06% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 20.26% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 3.56% | ||
Mega-cap stocks were weak, and microcap stocks remained hot, so we increased our stake in larger cap U.S. stocks and sold out of microcap BRSIX. We'd enjoyed a 93.93% return in BRSIX from April 2002 through the end of October 2004 (although we'd sold some along the way) - 87% over the S&P 500, and among our best wins versus the market. We were sad to see it go, but our timing was good: the outperformance of BRISX over the S&P 500 stopped in 2005, and didn't return until 2010.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | 7.47% |
| 15% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 4.69% |
| 10% | Payden Global Short Bond (PYGSX) | Global Bond | 0.67% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | 0.66% |
| 10% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | -1.04% |
| 10% | SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) | Emerging Market | -1.24% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | -1.38% |
| 5% | Bridgeway Ul-Sm Co Mkt (BRSIX) | Small Cap Value | -3.84% |
| 15% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | -4.53% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 0.56% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 1.07% | ||
International was up big, so we decided to cut back. We reduced ARTJX, PRJPX, GABTX, and SSEMX, as well as PYGSX, on the bond front and added more conservative U.S. bonds and stocks. Although we were now up to 80% stocks/20% bonds, a mere 15% of it was held abroad, and the portfolio was becoming less risky based on where we perceived the risk to be. We were staying ahead of the S&P, even with the drag of our bond allocation.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 18.27% |
| 10% | SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) | Emerging Market | 17.15% |
| 15% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 7.72% |
| 10% | Gabelli Global Telecom (GABTX) | Telecom | 7.49% |
| 10% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | 7.10% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 2.92% |
| 10% | Payden Global Short Bond (PYGSX) | Global Bond | 0.19% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | -0.38% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 6.67% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 4.65% | ||
With SSEMX up 53.62% in the previous period, we decided to sell in February of 2006 for a total return of 206.93%. This was a touch early, since the peak in emerging markets didn't occur until late 2007. We added telecom stocks with VOX, which underperformed similar funds until the collapse in emerging markets began in late 2007 - but still delivered our top return of 18.89% during this period. Our moves out of hot and into cold began to hurt our performance vs. the S&P 500. This was the first trading period since our start in early 2002 in which the Aggressive portfolio fell short of the S&P.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | SSgA Emerging Markets (SSEMX) | Emerging Market | 55.52% |
| 5% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | 45.34% |
| 5% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 35.90% |
| 15% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 20.85% |
| 5% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 15.14% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 7.57% |
| 35% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 7.49% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | 2.16% |
| 5% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 1.74% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 13.72% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 0.18% | ||
Goodbye, red-hot ARTJX, which we owned for just a few months after the fund launched when it was a wee, little, new fund. Our total return for the international small-capper was nearly 200%. We also closed out FMIMX for twice the S&P's return. We added XBI, which did well in the ensuing mess, and JARFX, which did not. Our second period of S&P 500 underperformance would be our last before the 50%+ slide in stocks ending in March 2009. We were down to 75% stocks.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | Vanguard Telecom VIPER (VOX) | Telecom | 14.57% |
| 35% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 8.13% |
| 5% | Artisan International Small Ca (ARTJX) | International Diversified | 4.60% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 3.96% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | 3.20% |
| 15% | FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) | Blend | 3.15% |
| 5% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 2.35% |
| 5% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 1.64% |
| 5% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | -4.42% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 5.09% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -3.69% | ||
We sold PRJPX, VOX, and VFSTX, and cut back on BRLIX in a big end-of-June '07 trade. We were positioning ourselves for market trouble with ALHIX, a long/short fund that ultimately disappointed but didn't fall like the market. We should have gone with government bonds, although we did add VBIIX to lock in higher interest rates. With a new stake in VUG, we were at just 65% stocks - our lowest to date, and considering 5% was long/short, we were well positioned for trouble ahead. The market nearly peaked in July 2007, but had one more hurrah in early October '07 before the long slide began.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | 21.79% |
| 5% | Vanguard Telecom VIPER (VOX) | Telecom | 20.39% |
| 5% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 12.73% |
| 35% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 9.03% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 7.69% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 6.43% |
| 20% | Vanguard Short Investment Grad (VFSTX) | Shorter Term Bond | 2.62% |
| 5% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 0.72% |
| 5% | T.Rowe Price Japan (PRJPX) | Japan | -1.62% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 8.83% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -1.76% | ||
We switched from one long/short fund to another (ALHIX to NARFX) after the former behaved badly during some market mayhem in the early stages of the crisis. During this period, we witnessed the collapse of overly engineered, supposedly safer funds, notably funds that owned investment-grade, adjustable rate mortgages.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 19.20% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | 9.42% |
| 15% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 8.05% |
| 20% | Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) | Investment Grade Bond | 6.97% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | 4.16% |
| 5% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 2.70% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 1.09% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 1.06% |
| 5% | AmCent Long-Short Eq Inv (ALHIX) | Long/Short | 0.18% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 5.73% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 6.45% | ||
We sold some bonds and doubled up on tech. We also bought a 5% stake in a double short commodity ETF (DEE) just in time to protect us from major trouble in the global economy and commodities. DEE provided a 158% gain in a just a few months, which, along with NARFX, gave us decent returns vs. the S&P again. We were up to 75% stock funds, and buying as stocks plunged.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 2.84% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 1.02% |
| 20% | Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) | Investment Grade Bond | 1.01% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | -0.96% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | -1.19% |
| 5% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | -4.85% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | -5.69% |
| 5% | Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) | Long/Short | -8.16% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | -13.55% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -2.04% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 10.04% | ||
Buying during the panic was tough, but we did it. We sold HABDX to cut our bond stake, added VPL and VOX (once again), and bought distressed, closed-end junk bond fund MHY. We were 90% stocks and sporting a riskier bond mix. Too bad we had five months to the bottom. Another 89% move up in DEE as well as several funds that fell way under the S&P kept our losses respectable.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE) | Long/Short | 70.81% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 5.54% |
| 5% | Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) | Long/Short | 0.01% |
| 10% | Vanguard Intm Bd Idx (VBIIX) | Investment Grade Bond | -2.58% |
| 15% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | -3.56% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | -3.60% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | -12.00% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | -12.67% |
| 10% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | -12.72% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | -19.65% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -2.77% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 22.13% | ||
In some ways, our most timely trade occurred in February 2009. We bought financial sector ETF XLF at the end of February, mere days from the bottom. We dumped MHY and were now only 5% bond funds (our lowest bond allocation ever), which coincided with the bottom of the market. We also dumped DEE right after all the big money was made, scoring a total of 389% in a down market for stocks and commodities. We only roughly matched the S&P on the rebound, but we'd fallen by about half as much on the way down.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | DB Commodity Double Short ETN (DEE) | Long/Short | 69.82% |
| 5% | Western Asset Managed High Inc (MHY) | High Yield Bond | 15.36% |
| 5% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 4.60% |
| 5% | Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) | Long/Short | -0.32% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | -1.34% |
| 5% | Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) | Asia | -7.41% |
| 10% | Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) | Telecom | -7.49% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | -9.46% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | -9.53% |
| 10% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | -11.37% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | -12.04% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | -16.12% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -3.66% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 17.72% | ||
We sold XLF for a quick 59% gain and pared the portfolio down to 90% stocks. Although in hindsight, the rebound had a long way to go, this wasn't our big mistake. We should have gotten out of all the safe areas that helped us on the way down and into riskier fare at this point. It was what we owned more than our overall allocation to stocks that explains this period's underperformance relative to the market. We rose above our old 2007 portfolio high in this period.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% | Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) | Financial Services | 62.46% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | 36.52% |
| 10% | Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) | Asia | 33.96% |
| 10% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 25.60% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 25.45% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | 24.11% |
| 10% | Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 23.70% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 16.72% |
| 5% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 8.27% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 1.77% |
| 5% | Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) | Long/Short | -2.91% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 23.44% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -3.76% | ||
May 2010 saw a major risk reduction trade in which we went down to 70% stocks from 90% by selling BRLIX and NARFX and adding BULIX and PIASX. This proved too early in the recovery. We also were phasing out several of our higher and lower-risk model portfolios and adjusting for a two-model portfolio future.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | 31.21% |
| 10% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 29.75% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | 29.59% |
| 20% | Bridgeway Blue-Chip 35 (BRLIX) | Blend | 27.65% |
| 10% | Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) | Asia | 19.95% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 19.14% |
| 10% | Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 12.74% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 11.74% |
| 10% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 10.24% |
| 5% | Nakoma Absolute Return (NARFX) | Long/Short | -10.41% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 21.56% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -0.61% | ||
A major overhaul of holdings took place as we moved to real money trading. We ended up with a mix of 59% stock funds and 41% bonds. This was a solid return period, even on our reduced stock stake - near market upside on greatly reduced downside. We were a little too enthusiastic about European stocks following years of underperformance. Fund investors were still favoring foreign stock funds, so we should have kept the foreign allocations lower.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | PIA Short-Term Securities (PIASX) | Mortgage Bond | 0% |
| 10% | Vanguard Pacific Stock ETF (VPL) | Asia | 0% |
| 10% | Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG) | Large Cap Growth | 0% |
| 10% | Janus Global Research (JARFX) | Global | 0% |
| 5% | SPDR Biotech (XBI) | Healthcare | 0% |
| 10% | Harbor Bond (HABDX) | Investment Grade Bond | 0% |
| 10% | Technology SPDR (XLK) | Technology | 0% |
| 5% | Amer Centry Utility Income (BULIX) | Utilities | -0.49% |
| 10% | Vanguard Telecom Serv ETF (VOX) | Telecom | -0.81% |
| 10% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | -1.00% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 174.72% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -445.45% | ||
We used Euro fears to get back up to 70% stocks, 20% of which is now foreign. We later dumped small cap JATTX due to asset bloat, and cut back on SATMX. We also dumped DEE for DTO (unfortunately, right before a big run up in oil). Our underperformance so far is due to mediocre returns in utilities (following major outperformance in the preceding months) and weak foreign fund performance.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | Janus Triton T (JATTX) | Small Cap Growth | 28.57% |
| 6% | American Century Utility Income (BULIX) | Utilities | 27.38% |
| 6% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 23.53% |
| 6% | Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) | Alternative | 19.75% |
| 6% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 19.38% |
| 6% | Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) | Financial Services | 18.15% |
| 15% | Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) | Mortgage Bond | 17.00% |
| 8% | Scout International Discovery (UMBDX) | International Diversified | 16.96% |
| 8% | PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) | Large Cap Growth | 15.99% |
| 10% | Parnassus Equity Income (PRBLX) | Blend | 14.63% |
| 20% | Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) | Investment Grade Bond | 8.02% |
| 2% | PowerShares DB Commodity Dble (DEE) | Long/Short | -46.89% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 15.81% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -4.90% | ||
Just a minor portfolio change here. We were forced to say goodbye to Scout International Discovery after three years and an annualized return of 10%. UMBDX's fund life was tragically cut short by its parent company after a long battle with low investor interest.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 52.01% |
| 8% | PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) | Large Cap Growth | 45.73% |
| 8% | Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) | Financial Services | 44.35% |
| 10% | Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 43.68% |
| 3% | Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) | Alternative | 37.72% |
| 6% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 33.81% |
| 6% | American Century Utility Income (BULIX) | Utilities | 24.81% |
| 12% | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) | International Diversified | 22.06% |
| 8% | Scout International Discovery (UMBDX) | International Diversified | 14.00% |
| 10% | Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) | Investment Grade Bond | 10.52% |
| 15% | Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) | Mortgage Bond | 8.75% |
| 5% | Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) | Government Bond | 4.43% |
| 3% | PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) | Long/Short | -37.55% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 24.66% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -14.35% | ||
Our goal with this major trade is to reduce overall stock exposure from 70% to 65% (not including the recent fund liquidation that reduced our official stock allocation below 70%) and switch into more out-of-favor funds and categories. As stocks have raced up in recent years our real money allocation in stocks was well over 70% and overdue for a rebalance trade.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) | International Diversified | 9.87% |
| 8% | Royce Financial Services Fund (RYFSX) | Financial Services | 6.90% |
| 6% | Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) | Healthcare | 6.52% |
| 8% | PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) | Large Cap Growth | 6.21% |
| 10% | Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 5.79% |
| 6% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 2.94% |
| 3% | Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) | Alternative | 2.38% |
| 6% | American Century Utility Income (BULIX) | Utilities | 1.95% |
| 10% | Metropolitan West Total Return (MWTRX) | Investment Grade Bond | 0.38% |
| 15% | Doubleline Total Return Bond (DLTNX) | Mortgage Bond | 0.04% |
| 5% | Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) | Government Bond | -2.21% |
| 3% | PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) | Long/Short | -21.60% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 3.51% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -1.68% | ||
From the 'good problem to have' department, this trade was primarily necessitated by the chart-topping performance of PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO), up more than 233% since our last trade here in 2013. Our DTO position needed to be significantly paired down to bring it back in line with the 4% of total portfolio we intended. We also added a 15% allocation of SPDR Barclay's International Bond ETF, as we believe it's a good time to start adding investment-grade unhedged foreign bond funds on Euro weakness.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) | Long/Short | 233.05% |
| 10% | Vanguard MegaCap Growth (MGK) | Large Cap Growth | 35.06% |
| 10% | PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) | Large Cap Growth | 29.29% |
| 5% | Gold Short (DZZ) | Precious Metals | 24.60% |
| 25% | Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) | Government Bond | 23.81% |
| 5% | American Century Utility Income (BULIX) | Utilities | 16.06% |
| 7% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 14.72% |
| 3% | Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) | Alternative | 13.69% |
| 6% | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) | International Diversified | 7.98% |
| 10% | DoubleLine Floating Rate N (DLFRX) | Shorter Term Bond | 4.50% |
| 10% | iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) | Emerging Market | 1.74% |
| 5% | Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Count (WAFMX) | Emerging Market | 1.51% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 24.96% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -3.19% | ||
Another major cut in size of DTO after the massive run-up recently as oil plunged. POGRX is too heavy in biotech and tech, and too popular. Time to move on. Also shifting from larger cap growth to value. Dumping microcap and one emerging markets fund. Utilities back in portfolio. Italy in. Shorting small cap and biotech for protection. Rebalances too. Minimal broad stock bond change.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4% | PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) | Long/Short | 66.98% |
| 5% | Gold Short (DZZ) | Long/Short | 8.33% |
| 7% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 0.54% |
| 15% | SPDR Barclays Intl. Treasury (BWX) | Foreign Bond | -0.21% |
| 10% | PRIMECAP Odyssey Growth (POGRX) | Large Cap Growth | -0.23% |
| 10% | Vanguard MegaCap Growth (MGK) | Large Cap Growth | -1.26% |
| 25% | Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) | Government Bond | -3.50% |
| 6% | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) | International Diversified | -7.14% |
| 5% | Wasatch Frontier Emerg Sm Count (WAFMX) | Emerging Market | -9.58% |
| 3% | Satuit Capital Micro Cap (SATMX) | Alternative | -15.75% |
| 10% | iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) | Emerging Market | -16.83% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -0.93% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 0.58% | ||
The main thing we are doing here is cutting back on longer term bonds and shifting to investments abroad. We need some sort of bet to lower the risk of more stock losses and any foreign asset should do the trick, even though globally stocks have been going down as a group lately and in general they tend to move together.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | Vanguard Utilities (VPU) | Utilities | 71.32% |
| 8% | iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) | Emerging Market | 70.09% |
| 16% | Vanguard Value (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 52.45% |
| 20% | Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index ETF (BLV) | Government Bond | 42.91% |
| 5% | Vanguard Europe Pacific ETF (VEA) | International Diversified | 28.77% |
| 6% | iShares MSCI Italy Capped (EWI) | Europe | 21.24% |
| 3% | Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 20.56% |
| 20% | SPDR Barclays Intl. Treasury (BWX) | Foreign Bond | 13.62% |
| 6% | Gold Short (DZZ) | Long/Short | -44.88% |
| 3% | Proshares Ultrashort NASDAQ Biotech (BIS) | Long/Short | -55.90% |
| 3% | PowerShares DB Crude Oil Dble Short (DTO) | Long/Short | -63.04% |
| 3% | Proshares Ultrashort Russel2000 (TWM) | Long/Short | -64.82% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 26.14% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -39.76% | ||
Our trades here are not only because of the Coronavirus-crash - several of these positions were already on the docket to be sold. The more significant factor was actually the sharp drop in rates related to the plummeting market.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | PROSHARES ULTRAPRO 3X SHORT OIL (OILD) | Long/Short | 111.45% |
| 2% | PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ (SQQQ) | Long/Short | 13.93% |
| 6% | VANGUARD LONG-TERM BOND (BLV) | Government Bond | 5.20% |
| 10% | SPDR BLOMBERG INTL TR BOND (BWX) | Foreign Bond | 3.30% |
| 6% | VANGUARD SHORT-TERM CORP. BOND (VCSH) | Shorter Term Bond | -0.45% |
| 6% | FRANKLIN FTSE CHINA (FLCH) | Asia | -3.21% |
| 12% | ISHARES JP MORGAN EM BOND (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | -4.68% |
| 16% | VANGUARD VALUE (VTV) | Large Cap Value | -7.38% |
| 6% | FRANKLIN FTSE GERMANY (FLGR) | Europe | -8.19% |
| 8% | ISHARES MSCI BRIC (BKF) | Emerging Market | -8.44% |
| 5% | VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS (VEA) | International Diversified | -8.97% |
| 10% | VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF (VBR) | Small Cap Value | -11.57% |
| 3% | DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X (JDST) | Long/Short | -13.35% |
| 8% | VANGUARD ENERGY (VDE) | Natural Resources | -26.37% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -15.46% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -1.16% | ||
We executed trades in both portfolios on April 3 (just over one month after our previous trades on February 28th) to cut way back on corporate bonds and deal with the cash from a liquidated inverse 3x oil ETF that the fund company shut down on March 27.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | FRANKLIN FTSE GERMANY (FLGR) | International Diversified | 47.19% |
| 8% | VANGUARD SMALL-CAP ETF (VBR) | Small Cap Value | 39.34% |
| 6% | iShares MSCI BRIC Index (BKF) | Emerging Market | 31.97% |
| 5% | VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS (VEA) | International Diversified | 30.42% |
| 6% | FRANKLIN FTSE CHINA (FLCH) | Asia | 29.66% |
| 14% | Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 23.22% |
| 6% | VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) | Healthcare | 17.54% |
| 8% | iSHARES JP MORGAN EM BOND (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | 17.39% |
| 8% | VANGUARD ENERGY (VDE) | Natural Resources | 12.56% |
| 14% | Schwab US TIPS (SCHP) | Government Bond | 4.80% |
| 15% | VANGUARD ST INFLATION PROTECTED (VTIP) | Government Bond | 3.03% |
| 2% | PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ (SQQQ) | Long/Short | -75.83% |
| 2% | DIREXION GOLD MINERS BEAR 3X (JDST) | Long/Short | -82.83% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 15.54% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -19.69% | ||
The relatively minor changes were primarily to shift us out of some areas that had been hot and to add some lagging stock categories.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | Vanguard Energy (VDE) | Natural Resources | 62.11% |
| 8% | Vanguard Small-Cap Value (VBR) | Small Cap Value | 42.79% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE China ETF (FLCH) | Asia | 22.64% |
| 14% | Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 20.11% |
| 5% | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA) | International Diversified | 18.55% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) | Latin America | 10.74% |
| 6% | VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) | Healthcare | 10.65% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Germany ETF (FLGR) | International Diversified | 6.56% |
| 5% | Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) | Utilities | 4.17% |
| 8% | iShares JP Morgan Em. Bond (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | 3.91% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Term Inflation Prote (VTIP) | Government Bond | 1.60% |
| 9% | Schwab US TIPS (SCHP) | Government Bond | -0.80% |
| 2% | ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) | Long/Short | -16.08% |
| 2% | ProShares Decline of the Retail Sto (EMTY) | Long/Short | -31.37% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 15.09% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -0.36% | ||
We really thought these trades could be put off until a year after our buying during the COVID crash. Unfortunately there is just too much speculation going on these days not to make some changes.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | Vanguard Energy (VDE) | Natural Resources | 26.09% |
| 14% | Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 18.64% |
| 5% | Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU) | Utilities | 18.54% |
| 8% | Vanguard Small-Cap Value (VBR) | Small Cap Value | 17.31% |
| 9% | VanEck Vectors Pharmaceutical (PPH) | Healthcare | 11.28% |
| 5% | Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets (VEA) | International Diversified | 8.73% |
| 10% | Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV) | Government Bond | 5.22% |
| 15% | Vanguard Short Term Inflation Prote (VTIP) | Government Bond | 4.63% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Germany ETF (FLGR) | International Diversified | 2.74% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) | Latin America | -5.09% |
| 4% | iShares JP Morgan Em. Bond (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | -7.21% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE China ETF (FLCH) | Asia | -21.81% |
| 2% | ProShares Decline of the Retail Sto (EMTY) | Long/Short | -28.31% |
| 2% | ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) | Long/Short | -42.51% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 7.41% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -17.19% | ||
These trades are to reduce our stock allocations and exposure to inflation oriented investments made in 2020.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) | Long/Short | 54.55% |
| 2% | ProShares Decline of Retail (EMTY) | Long/Short | 17.19% |
| 9% | VanEck Vectors Pharma. (PPH) | Healthcare | 6.30% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Brazil (FLBR) | Latin America | 5.88% |
| 10% | Vanguard Utilities (VPU) | Utilities | 5.29% |
| 14% | Vanguard Value Index (VTV) | Large Cap Value | -4.86% |
| 20% | Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities (VMBS) | Mortgage Bond | -9.45% |
| 4% | iShares JP Morgan Em. Bond (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | -12.24% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE China (FLCH) | Asia | -13.59% |
| 5% | Vanguard FTSE Developed Mkts. (VEA) | International Diversified | -15.40% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP) | Japan | -18.49% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Germany (FLGR) | International Diversified | -27.40% |
| 10% | Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) | Government Bond | -30.13% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | -7.58% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | 8.59% | ||
6/30/2022 - Present
We made some changes to both model portfolios at the end of June. The end result was a slight increase in stock exposure and an increase in our exposure to interest rates by moving from shorter-term to longer-term bonds. We also made some tweaks to our hedging strategy to protect the portfolios from an increasingly likely drop in high risk debt.
| % | Name/Ticker | Category | Per. Ret. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | Vanguard Communications ETF (VOX) | Telecom | 75.04% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Germany (FLGR) | International Diversified | 45.19% |
| 6% | Vanguard Value Index (VTV) | Large Cap Value | 41.45% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Japan ETF (FLJP) | Japan | 36.57% |
| 5% | Vanguard FTSE Developed Mkts. (VEA) | International Diversified | 31.44% |
| 9% | Vangaurd All-World Small-Cap (VSS) | International Diversified | 24.47% |
| 9% | VanEck Vectors Pharma. (PPH) | Healthcare | 21.32% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE Brazil (FLBR) | Latin America | 14.98% |
| 7% | iShares JP Morgan Em. Bond (LEMB) | Foreign Bond | 9.82% |
| 3% | LeatherBack L/S Alt. Yld. (LBAY) | Long/Short | 0.26% |
| 6% | Franklin FTSE China (FLCH) | Asia | -6.21% |
| 5% | Proshares Short High Yld (SJB) | Long/Short | -10.90% |
| 14% | Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) | Government Bond | -18.53% |
| 2% | UltraShort Bloom. Crude Oil (SCO) | Long/Short | -20.15% |
| 2% | ProShares Decline of Retail (EMTY) | Long/Short | -20.24% |
| 2% | ProShares UltraShort QQQ (QID) | Long/Short | -73.32% |
| 2% | Proshares Short Bitcoin (BITI) | Long/Short | -89.48% |
| Period Portfolio Return: | 14.82% | ||
| Period Portfolio vs. S&P: | -50.63% | ||
